HOW TO BEAT NEW ENGLAND
Yes, the Patriots are in the NFL’s final four again but others still have a chance,
Yes, it appears: another season, another Patriots Super Bowl. Yet there must be some way to beat New England.
This week, while the Minnesota Vikings are three-point favourites in Philadelphia against the Eagles, the Patriots are a comfortable 9.5-point pick at home over the Jacksonville Jaguars. It’s nothing new: The Patriots were favoured in every game this season, with spreads from 2.5 to 17 points.
The Patriots have won two of the past three Super Bowls and a minimum of 10 games for 15 consecutive seasons. The other contenders don’t have anything like that record of success.
Entering this season, the Jaguars had six consecutive seasons with five or fewer wins. The Eagles were coming off back-to-back 7-9 seasons. The Vikings are coming off their first playoff win in eight years.
We can hear Patriots haters saying: “Ugh. Give them the trophy already.”
But wait. The Pats were 13-3 this season. How did the three losses come about? Break some big plays: In the first NFL game of the season, the Patriots fell 42-27 to the Kansas City Chiefs despite leading by six points after three quarters. A few excited commentators started saying the collapse was a sign that the Chiefs were an elite team and that the Patriots’ dynasty was over. (It didn’t work out that way.)
Kareem Hunt, a Chiefs rookie, had 246 yards from scrimmage, which wound up being the third-highest total of the year. Key to the win were several big plays: a 75-yard Tyreek Hill reception and a 78-yard reception and a 58-yard run by Hunt. Make big plays like those and the Patriots may be in trouble.
Whatever the Pats were doing wrong, they corrected it. Those three big Week 1 touchdowns wound up being three of the five biggest ones against the team all season. Get a top-notch quarterback effort: In October, the Pats lost at home again, 33-30 to the Carolina Panthers. Cam Newton was 22 for 29 with three touchdowns. By rating, it turned out to be his second-best game of the year. (The Chiefs also benefitted from their quarterback: Alex Smith had his best game of the season in the opener, a 28-for-35, 368-yard, four-touchdown performance.)
Now, is Nick Foles, Blake Bortles or Case Keenum up to the challenge? Among the 44 NFL quarterbacks with three or more starts, they ranked 37th, 21st and 11th in adjusted yards per pass. (Brady was fourth.)
Catch them on a bad night: Perhaps the most surprising loss came in December, 27-20 at Miami. The Patriots were 10.5-point favourites, but lost. Brady threw two picks, his only multiple-interception game of the season.
The 5-7 Dolphins seemed an unlikely candidate to upset the 10-2 Pats. But because Miami took a 27-10 lead, the Patriots were forced to pass. They ran only 10 times, by far the fewest of the season. The Patriots somehow did not convert a third down for the first time since 1991 (they lost that game, too).
“It was a bad night,” said Brady, and it’s hard to see it as much more.
So, what are the keys to beating the Patriots?
Exploit the defence: As a team, the Patriots shone in many areas. At 40, Brady was again one of the best quarterbacks in the game. Rob Gronkowski was again an elite tight end, and receiver Brandin Cooks was another top weapon. The team’s top rusher, Dion Lewis, averaged five yards a rush and was a top returner. Stephen Gostkowski was among the kicking leaders.
Put it together, and the Patriots were third in yards per play, fifth in net yards per pass and second in points scored.
But their defence had some weaker numbers. It surrendered the fourthmost yards. It was second-worst in yards per play and yards per rush. It was better against the pass, but still not great: 20th in net yards per pass, 18th in interceptions.
The Patriots did not have a single defensive player on the All-Pro team and only two in the Pro Bowl.
Get to Brady: The Chiefs and the Panthers recorded three sacks in their wins. The Houston Texans sacked Brady the most, five times, and lost by three points.
Historically, there are more relevant precedents that provide the formula for preventing another Patriots Super Bowl parade. In their two Super Bowl upsets of the Patriots, the New York Giants sacked Brady a combined seven times — and also benefitted from a safety when Giants pass rushers forced Brady into an intentional grounding penalty in the end zone. In the week before the first of those games, in 2008, the focus of the Giants’ defensive game plan was not only to badger Brady, but to distract him with contact in the pocket.
“We told the guys that even if Brady has thrown the ball, try to get a hit on him,” Giants defensive co-ordinator Steve Spagnuolo said after the game. “And for every time I told the guys that, Michael Strahan told them it another four times.”
Brady threw for only one touchdown in the game and was hit while passing 15 times. He spent most of the day ducking and moving in the pocket, backpedalling while throwing and generally looking out of rhythm. If there is a tried-and-true defensive recipe for defeating a Brady-led team, it is the same as it is for many quarterbacks: Make him uncomfortable. But in Brady’s case, it especially seems to be the kryptonite.