Women and independents fuel Democrats’ early advantage

U.S. government shutdown could shuffle preferences

WASHINGTON— Strong support from women and independents is fuelling Democrats’ large early advantage ahead of this year’s congressional elections, a sign that two groups that have recoiled from Donald Trump’s presidency will play a decisive role in November, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.

The U.S. government shutdown, set to end Tuesday, and rising economic optimism are just two factors that could shuffle preferences over the nine months before election day, with Republicans hoping to take more credit for economic growth and cast Democrats as anti-Trump obstructionists.

By 51 per cent to 39 per cent, more registered voters say they would support the Democratic candidate in their congressional district over the Republican. Democrats’ 12-percentage-point advantage on this “generic ballot” question is the largest in PostABC polling since 2006, although it is slightly larger than other polls this month.

Judging from past elections, Democrats are expected to need a sixto eight-point advantage in national support this fall to gain the 24 seats needed to win control of the House. Election handicappers say a Democratic takeover is possible, but not yet likely.

The midterm elections loomed heavily over the federal government shutdown that began Saturday, after the poll was completed. The Post-ABC poll found more Americans saying they think Trump and Republicans were responsible for the shutdown, although Republican leaders have expressed confidence that Democrats will be blamed for insisting on concessions for young undocumented immigrants before backing a funding bill.

Although the president’s party nearly always loses seats in Congress in midterm elections, Trump’s 36 per cent job-approval rating puts Republicans at particular risk this year.