NDP leader Singh sets his national strategy
Analysts say plan is about shoring up longtime support, moving back into Quebec
OTTAWA— Say you’re a backroom strategist, charged with charting the New Democratic Party’s plan for electoral victory. You have this flashy new leader, a 39-year-old who professes the requisite leftist ideals, yet does so with flair and an attitude that seems linked to a generational shift. He talks of “vibes” and calls things “fire,” and though still untested without a seat in the House of Commons, he has influence at his fingertips with tens of thousands of followers on Twitter and Instagram. What do you do with that? You can bet the team assembled around Jagmeet Singh is grappling with this very question. He cruised to victory in the NDP leadership race last year, when he vastly out-fundraised his opponents and won on the first ballot. The goal in the first months of his leadership surely has been to carry that momentum into his new role and set up the NDP for growth in the 2019 federal election.
One way to glean insight into how the party is trying to accomplish this is to look at what Singh has been doing with his time. Without a seat in Parliament, the leader has pledged to have “100,000 conversations” with Canadians as he travels the country on a national get-to-know-me tour.
Using a list of stops provided by the party, as well as information plucked from Singh’s social media feeds, the Star has assembled a 32-stop itinerary of his movements between Oct. 1, when he won the leadership, and the beginning of February.
At first glance, it seems like an aggressive battle plan. Two-thirds of the ridings Singh has visited belong to opposing parties. He’s spent a lot of time in Toronto, the fortress of Liberal seats that was painted red in 2015. And he’s been to Conservative ridings, too — even touching down for one of his “JagMeet and Greet” soirées in Regina-Qu’Appelle, home turf to none other than Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer.
“The majority of his time is in nonincumbent ridings,” observed Karl Bélanger, a longtime NDP insider who worked as a high-ranking staffer for former leaders Jack Layton and Tom Mulcair. “It shows that there is willingness and certainly a strategy to grow the party.”
But different eyes on the same list provoked an alternate analysis from David Coletto, chief executive officer of Abacus Data. Several Liberal ridings Singh has visited, Coletto noted, are in places where the NDP has a decent shot of winning. Take a look at his stop in Halifax on Nov.12, when he hosted an event with supporters in a riding the party held from1997 to 2015, when prominent NDP MP Megan Leslie lost to her Liberal challenger.
It’s a similar situation in downtown Toronto, Coletto said. Singh has been to Liberal ridings there at least eight times as NDP leader, delivering speeches at events such as a Canadian Union of Public Employees convention and the National Black Canadians Summit.
Coletto also pointed out that, during the leadership race, many observers predicted Singh — a Scarborough-born former provincial lawmaker from Brampton — could open up new, suburban constituencies for the NDP. But according to the Star’s list, Singh hasn’t held any events in the 905 yet. Nor has he visited the sprawling cities outside Vancouver in British Columbia’s Lower Mainland.
When you consider that, alongside the 10 stops Singh has made to hold events and tour local communities with incumbent NDP MPs, his strategy appears to be much less focused on charging into new territory and more on defending what the NDP already has.
“It almost looks like they’re back to a position where they’re trying to re-establish some beachheads,” Coletto said.
“The strategy seems to be shoring up or introducing the new leader to parts of the country that have, historically or recently, voted New Democrat . . . They’re not at a stage where they’re looking to grow.”
Farouk Karim, a former NDP caucus press secretary who was communications director for Quebec MP Guy Caron’s leadership campaign, agreed the NDP appears to be focused on securing its “foundation” — but he argued this is actually a smart place to begin.
“It’s smart to concentrate where you’re strong,” Karim said, pointing out that Singh has touched down in every region of the country — except the territories — and focused on vote-rich areas where the NDP can win, such as Vancouver and Toronto.
“Elections are about math. It’s mathematics. You have to see where the bulk of the seats are — the bulk of the seats are Ontario, Quebec and B.C. . . . You have to be strong in those areas,” he said.
Karim added that he’s happy to see that Singh has gone to Quebec at least four times for official events — and not just in Montreal, but in regions such as Quebec City, the eastern townships and Lac Saint-Jean. To have a shot at repeating any semblance of the party’s “Orange Wave” breakthrough in 2011, Singh has to become a familiar face in the province, Karim said.
“There were a lot of questions about his religious symbols,” Karim said, referring to Singh’s turban and kirpan dagger, which he wears as a practicing Sikh.
“That’s going to be happening the first time he goes to those media markets. The second time it’s going to be questions about issues,” Karim said. “He has to go early and to go often.”
Whether he’s aggressive, defensive or just plain smart, the strategizing will continue as the party gathers in Ottawa for a national convention over the Family Day weekend.
Last time the NDP family gathered as one, Mulcair was turfed in a vote of non-confidence as leader. You can bet Singh and his team are hoping for a cheerier “vibe” this time around.