Serving up key storylines at break point
Battle for basement as tight as playoff races with season nearing stretch
It’s time for everyone connected with the NBA to take a collective breath and gather themselves for the stretch run.
The past has basically been prelude; the real work of establishing momentum going into the playoffs, or gathering momentum for the 2018 draft, begins in earnest on Thursday when the final sprint begins.
The prevalent school of thought is that you can break the season down into three segments: The first 20 games or so are to find out what teams have and what they might need; the next 30 or so are to shake out the standings and establish position; and the final 30 are to make one last push.
With that in mind, here are five things to look for when play resumes:
WHO’S NO. 1?
The Raptors are two games up on the Celtics in the East, with the re-energized Cavaliers lurking 61⁄ games
2 out of first — a monumental amount with fewer than 30 games to go. You can throw a blanket over the Golden State Warriors and Houston Rockets in the West, with the Warriors a half game up.
Finishing first overall is a big deal, with home court being a huge postseason factor. And it’s particularly important in the East because the eventual No. 1 seed will be able to avoid the other two teams in the second round of the playoffs.
WHO MAKES IT?
There may be a sizable gap between the top two or three teams in each conference and the rest of the playoff contenders, but that doesn’t mean there’s no drama left in who eventually makes the post-season.
Without even worrying about firstround seeding and potential matchups, there are still races in both conferences to find out who gets in.
In the West, six teams — Oklahoma City, Portland, Denver, New Orleans, the L.A. Clippers and hard-charging Utah — are within 21⁄ games of each
2 other with four spots at stake.
It’s a bit more clear-cut in the East but there are three teams — Philadelphia, Miami and Detroit — chasing the last two post-season slots.
A four-game winning streak or a four-game losing streak at any time in the final two months for any of those teams could be the determining factor, adding a sense of urgency to every game.
THE PING-PONG BALLS
As fascinating as it might be to see who finishes where in the top eight in each conference, it’s going to be equally intriguing to see what goes on in the Tank Bowl for the best draft lottery odds.
And the race to the bottom has seldom been closer.
The bottom eight teams, going into play Thursday night, are within two games of each other.
Chicago has 20 wins, Brooklyn has 19, and Orlando, Atlanta, Memphis, Sacramento, Dallas and Phoenix all have18. It could come down to which teams divest themselves of even marginally helpful veterans in order to “evaluate the future” and lose just enough games to have the best lottery odds. Speaking of which . . . Marco Belinelli landed in Philadelphia from Atlanta, Joe Johnson has gone from Sacramento to Houston, and Greg Monroe is now in Boston after his stint in Phoenix.
THE BUYOUT MARKET
Raptors boss Masai Ujiri said last week he thinks there could be some “surprises” on who hits the market, creating more intrigue in the buyout portion of the season than maybe ever before.
And things will have to happen fast. Players have to be free of any NBA contractual obligations by March1to be eligible to play in the post-season, creating a two-week window that could have an impact on what transpires before the end of the season.
AWARDS TIME
It’s generally conceded at this point that Houston’s James Harden has a headlock on the most valuable player award. But with Kevin Durant and Stephen Curry in the conversation on a team with a better record than Harden’s Rockets — and LeBron James and Russell Westbrook lurking, depending on how well their teams do in the final two months — the conversation could change greatly.
It’s probably one of the least-important discussions for the rest of the season but it will be something to chatter about.