Gathering steam — and cash
Internal campaign memo says candidate closing in on rivals, has raised most in the field
Caroline Mulroney has raked in $700,000 in her bid to lead the provincial Tories. One of her top campaign officials is calling this “a true three-way race,”
Rookie candidate Caroline Mulroney has raised more than $700,000 in her bid to succeed Patrick Brown as Progressive Conservative leader, according to an internal campaign memo.
While most Tory insiders agree former MPP Christine Elliott is leading the March 10 contest followed by exToronto city councillor Doug Ford, Mulroney’s camp believes she is closing in.
“This is a true three-way race — our riding-by-riding voter modelling shows that Caroline is registering close to 35 per cent of first ballot support,” says the confidential missive by Mulroney campaign guru Derek Vanstone, a prominent federal and provincial Conservative operative.
“Caroline is the leading second-ballot choice for an overwhelming number of Elliott and Ford voters,” noted Vanstone in his three-page letter to Mulroney endorsers penned Tuesday, the day after Brown abandoned his leadership bid.
“While you can use this information to inform your calls with your local supporters and in our outreach to Patrick Brown supporters, please do not share copies of this memo,” he added.
“We have now raised more than $700,000 from more than 2,000 donors.”
That is believed to be the most of any candidate. Elliott’s campaign said it has raised $500,000 and noted it has received 3,117 online donations — at least 2,700 of which were for $100 or less.
Ford’s campaign did not respond to requests for information on fundraising.
Mulroney, a businesswoman and daughter of former prime minister Brian Mulroney and a first-time candidate in York-Simcoe, is stepping up her pitch.
Online voting begins Friday and concludes on March 8 with the winner announced March 10 at a party convention in Markham. “The people of Ontario want change, and Caroline is the best leader positioned to do that,” Vanstone wrote.
“She has a clean record and carries no baggage. Her growth over the last three weeks has been tremendous, and she is getting stronger every day.”
The political newcomer generated headlines last week when she urged Brown — who resigned on Jan. 25 amid allegations of sexual impropriety — to quit the race for his old job.
But her campaign concedes the bilingual mother of four is probably not the front-runner.
“This is a three-way race. One where it is a close race between first and third. However, this race is really coming down to two choices, Caroline or Elliott. Only one of the two of them (can) reach the 50 per cent required to win the race,” Vanstone wrote.
“We believe that Elliott’s support is less committed. Some are viewing her as the default choice; but a reluctance to engage on any of the issues in this election is slowly draining that support,” the campaign czar said.
“Ford has strong support and is likely to benefit from the secondchoice support of the Granic voters,” he said, referring to social conservative activist Tanya Granic Allen, who is seen as a long shot.
“But we also know there is no scenario where he can hit 50 per cent of the vote. Very few Brown supporters have gone to the Ford camp and his ability to grow is very limited. The only two candidates who have a large enough potential vote pool to win this race are Caroline and Elliott.”
Vanstone pointed out that “Caroline’s second-ballot support goes overwhelmingly to Elliott, just as Elliott’s second-ballot support goes overwhelmingly to Caroline.”
“Our goal is to finish ahead of Christine Elliott on the first ballot. If we can achieve that then our likelihood of winning is very high. Given a choice between Caroline or Ford, the Elliott vote breaks overwhelmingly our way.”
With an election set for June 7, Premier Kathleen Wynne’s Liberals are closely watching the Progressive Conservative race.
While they would have preferred to run against a party led by the wounded Brown — who now sits as an Independent MPP and is vowing to clear his name — they are relishing the chance to take on Ford.
There is less enthusiasm in the Liberal ranks to face off against Elliott or Mulroney, though the governing party sees weaknesses in both candidates.
Speaking on condition of anonym- ity in order to discuss strategy, one senior Liberal pointed out that Elliott has badly lost the PC leadership twice before — including to Brown in 2015 — so she has hardly an invincible political force.
And they believe Mulroney’s lack of experience, the fact she is a dual Canadian-American citizen, and the potentially polarizing presence of her father could help their re-election chances in June.