The tipper and the cheque
Market-value deal to keep red-hot JVR seems out of reach
Under normal circumstances, James van Riemsdyk’s recent scoring surge would have been enough to talk about.
However, after Wednesday night’s hat trick against the Dallas Stars and two more goals Thursday night in Buffalo, his performance will be analyzed in the context of his future with the Leafs.
The lingering question comes down to simple math: Can the Leafs afford to sign van Riemsdyk to a multi-year extension before he’s eligible to hit the free-agent market in the summer?
The big winger kept rolling in Thurs- day’s 5-2 win over the Sabres, scoring twice in the first period to reach a career-high 31 goals for the season. His value to the club, though, runs much deeper. In an organization that’s loaded in many areas, van Riemsdyk is really the only prototypical power winger — with a strong net presence and a league leader when it comes to giving goaltenders fits by tipping pucks.
Van Riemsdyk is eligible to become an unrestricted free agent in July and his next contract could very well be the richest of his career. Whether that’s with the Leafs or elsewhere, he could command a six- or seven-year deal worth $6 million to $7 million (U.S.) per season.
His current $4.2-million cap hit represents one of the best values in the NHL, and among upcoming free agents this summer only John Tavares of the New York Islanders had as many goals through Wednesday.
LEAFS from S1
But the odds seem long that he will get what he’s worth from the Leafs, who will soon have to also work out new deals with young stars Auston Matthews, William Nylander and Mitch Marner. If they do re-sign those big three, as expected, it leaves little room for another big longterm contract.
At the moment, the Leafs have $39.05 million committed to 10 players for next season, with Patrick Marleau the highest paid at $6.2 million per season.
There are few comparables to indicate what it would take to lock up Matthews, Nylander and Marner at the same time. In the case of Matthews, though, he’ll be in a position similar to that of Nikita Kucherov of the Tampa Bay Lightning, the NHL’s leading scorer whose rookie-level contract also ends next season.
Both Matthews and Kucherov are destined to join the highestpaid players in the game, if not break new ground in average annual value. If there is a comparable for those two, it’s the extension the Edmonton Oilers gave superstar Connor McDavid last July — with a leaguehigh average value of $12.5 million over eight years.
Van Riemsdyk has been gracious when faced with questions about his future, but prefers to focus about the Leafs’ pursuit of a long playoff run. A big part of that is the winger’s success on the power play: nine goals with the man advantage, tied with Nazem Kadri for tops on the club, and the most power-play ice time per game, helping mask the lack of production from the club’s second unit. At five-on-five, though, he also leads in shot attempt percentage at 55.7 per cent.
“I just try to get to the good spots on the ice where you can score goals,” he said after his three-goal performance against the Stars, “and I’m playing with smart players who know how to get the puck to those areas.”
Linemate Tyler Bozak spoke Thursday about the team’s successful power-play formula: a Bozak faceoff win after which the puck is worked around for a shot and potential tip-in from van Riemsdyk, one of the NHL’s best at that particular skill.
“We’ve been together on the power play for a couple of years now, so you have that chemistry,” Bozak said.
“Whenever you have a guy like James, everyone likes to have that big body in front of the net.” Come July, van Riemsdyk might find out just how much teams are willing to pay for a player “everyone likes to have.”