Poll points to a Tory majority

‘Vote gap’ analysis shows about half of Ontario voters are open to choosing Conservative party

Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservatives appear well on the way to forming a majority government in June at Queen’s Park, if a recent poll holds true.

“If an election were held tomorrow, there’s no doubt it would be a Doug Ford majority,” said Eli Yufest, CEO of Campaign Research Inc., in an interview.

“This is basically Doug Ford’s to lose,” Yufest said.

The poll’s results were drawn from online questioning between March 12 and 14. It surveyed 766 men and 845 women, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.4 per cent,19 times out of 20.

Pollsters conducted “voter gap analysis,” asking respondents which party they would vote for and if they would consider supporting any other political parties.

The results indicated that 65 per cent of voters wouldn’t consider voting Liberal, compared to 58 per cent who wouldn’t support the NDP and 49 per cent who wouldn’t vote Tory.

“Basically half of the electorate are open to voting for (the Conservatives),” Yufest said.

Those results challenge some accepted wisdom about Ford, Yufest added in a written statement.

“Since Doug Ford’s election as leader of the PCs, the prevalent narrative has been that Doug Ford is immensely unpopular and polarizing,” he said.

“This voter gap analysis clearly illustrates that Doug Ford and the PCs have considerably greater appeal among Ontarians than either of the other two main political parties.”

Respondents were told that Ford had won the Tory leadership before they were asked about their voting preference.

The numbers appear particularly grim for Premier Kathleen Wynne.

Wynne and the Liberals have less than half the number of “locked-in” voters as Ford, who won the Tory nomination last weekend.

Thirty per cent of decided voters plan to support the Progressive Conservatives in the June 7 election, according to the poll, while just 12 per cent plan to vote Liberal.

Thirteen per cent of voters surveyed said they’re locked into support Andrea Horwath’s New Democrats.

The results raise the possibility of the NDP assuming the role of official Opposition.

“They’ve got more room to grow than the Liberals,” Yufest said.

While Ford enjoys more committed support than Wynne, his backers are also more solid, the polling suggests.

Much of Wynne’s base comes from millennial voters who reached adulthood after 2000, while Ford is backed by an older crowd, according to the poll.

Millennials are very unreliable when it comes to turning out at the polls and voting, Yufest said.