Premier Doug Ford? Not quite so fast
If you believe recent polls, the June 7 provincial Ontario election may already be decided. Eric Grenier, the CBC’s polling analyst, currently projects that the Conservatives could win 78 to 98 seats, placing them in majority government territory. The NDP are second with 15 to 28 seats and the Liberals are in third place with up to 25 seats.
Considering the dysfunctional weeks leading up to the chaotic Conservative leadership vote, electors nevertheless appear ready to hand the levers of government and governance to a party described by its interim leader as full of “rot” — a party that will now be led by an inexperienced Doug Ford. He has never held a seat in the legislature.
Other pollsters are tracking the same trend toward the Conservatives but also note there is hesitation regarding the Ford name. The latest study from the Angus Reid Institute, showed that “48 per cent of voters who said they were willing to consider supporting the Tories say Ford would make them less likely to vote for the party.”
If voters are angry with Kathleen Wynne, they are equally unsure about Doug Ford’s economic and social plans, his character and his values.
As of this date, Ford has 81 days to build his own narrative, demonstrate a depth in policy matters and a grasp on the machinery of provincial government. It is a tall order. First, he must deal with party matters. He will try to win Etobicoke North (currently held by long-term Liberal MPP Shafiq Qaadri) but he must also find winnable ridings for Christine Elliott and Tanya Granic Allen, the social conservative candidate whose supporters gravitated to Ford on the second ballot. Will they be parachuted into ridings or expected to fight bruising nomination battles?
Next, he needs to accept that journalists have questions.
Ford made the media rounds immediately following the convention but became slightly testy in one interview. Can he maintain his composure for the next 81 days given intrusive questions by reporters (whom he is said to dislike) and tough debates with Kathleen Wynne, who is legendary for her stamina, energy and competitive spirit.
Some of the questions may be about his business and his ethics.
He likes to refer to his business experience with Deco Labels, a company co-founded by his father. The company is private but has offices in both Toronto and Chicago.
Ford has said he will put his business operations in a blind trust, which is a good first step, but can voters be assured that Ford’s family business interest will not conflict with official duties?
In 2016, when he was on Toronto council, he was found to have broken two articles in the Code of Conduct for Member of Council by setting up meetings with city officials on behalf of at least two business clients.
It is also disconcerting for a potential premier of Ontario to employ 58 people in Chicago. He may argue that having the jobs in the U.S. helps to produce Canadian jobs, but nevertheless, the optics are odd.
Finally, while election debates about economic issues are important, values are also crucial.
Where does Ford stand on reconciliation, one of the most important themes in the country today? How would he deal with Indigenous issues?
How does he envision Ontario’s place in Confederation? Does he support bilingualism? Does he recognize Ontario’s strong Franco-Ontarian culture?
How will he deal with powerful groups whose values he may not share? The empowered LGBTQ network is strong and active, as are millennials and young voters.
Women, too, have found renewed authority in their shared stories with the #MeToo movement. Blind partisan loyalty is not always the answer for many of these complex social issues.
This particular election could lead to unusual partnerships and shifts in voting patterns not yet discerned by pollsters. Any move to regressive policies or any hint of “back to the ’50s” in terms of values, would not sit well with these activist voters, no matter what the polls may currently say.
Make no mistake, this election may feature Doug Ford, but it is really a battle for the soul of Ontario. Careful what you wish for.