Astros armed for another title
The Blue Jays are optimistically counting on a healthy rotation for 2018. That seasonopening Jays quintet will include a blister-free Aaron Sanchez, new fifth starter Jaime Garcia and a future ace, Marcus Stroman, who needs to take another step up the developmental ladder. It will also need Marco Estrada to avoid a 10-start, mid-season crisis of confidence and J.A. Happ to provide a steady presence. And if that all comes together …
Only five of 15 American League teams finished above .500 last season and they all made the playoffs. Starting pitching was very important to them.
The Astros, Red Sox and Indians won their divisions, while the Yankees and Twins qualified as wild cards. They were the top five team in wins, the top four in ERA (with the Twins 10th), and four of the top five in WHIP and opposition OPS.
The 2017 Jays battled a bracket-busting array of injuries and a lack of minor-league depth. Those were huge factors, and if healthy enough, they could be among the top six rotations this season. But the Jays were 12th in starter wins, 12th in WHIP, seventh in ERA and ninth in opponent OPS. That’s a long climb.
Here is our ranking of the top six rotations in the AL, with less than two weeks to opening day. Houston: RH Justin Verlander; LH Dallas Keuchel; RH Gerritt Cole; RH Charlie Morton; RH Lance McCullers Jr.
The Astros rode a dynamic offence to the AL West title, but it was only when they added Verlander at the end-of-August deadline that they became clear World Series favourites. And though they already had Verlander and another Cy Young winner in Keuchel, they went out this winter and obtained the best starter from the Pirates, the 27-year old Cole. Morton came into his own in October and hopes to continue. If McCullers continues to mature at age 24, they will deserve No. 1 ranking. Cleveland: RH Corey Kluber; RH Carlos Carrasco; RH Trevor Bauer; RH Mike Clevinger; RH Josh Tomlin.
Yes, Cleveland has a righthand-heavy starting five, but with a true ace, Kluber, and a potential ace, Carrasco, at the top and with the drone-master Bauer in the middle, they are deep and feared. The Indians are the only AL team with three pitchers logging 175-plus innings. Clevinger and Tomlin are true 4-5 starters, and righthander Danny Salazar (shoulder) has been getting closer to a return. More good news. New York: RH Luis Severino; RH Masahiro Tanaka; LH CC Sabathia; RH Sonny Gray; LH Jordan Montgomery.
The perception of the Yankees rotation is it’s expensive and fragile. Severino is a dynamic 24-year-old right-hander that has a chance to become a future ace of the Yankees rotation. Tanaka and Sabathia are seen as precious commodities, but both are battle-hardened and when healthy will give you enough to win, especially with the Yankees’ high-charged offence. Montgomery is just 25 and gives the rotation balance as an improving fifth starter. Boston: LH Chris Sale; LH David Price; RH Rick Porcello; LH Brian Johnson; RH Hector Velazquez.
Price is no bargain, but he’s healthy again and, given that over the past three seasons he is 41-18 and has averaged a strikeout per inning pitched, the Red Sox will take him as a No. 2 between the ultra-dynamic Sale and the consistent former Cy Guy, Porcello. Despite the lack of post-season success for the two Sox big boys, remember, this is a regular-season ranking. And when lefties Drew Pomeranz and Eduardo Rodriguez are healthy, this group will be even better. Toronto: RH Stroman; RH Sanchez; LH Happ; RH Estrada; LH Garcia.
The Jays had 45 games started by pitchers that are not at this training camp. Those absentee starters were 11-20. Can a healthy five-man Jays rotation pick up that slack? If so, this is a deep and talented group with no true ace (yet) and no true No. 5 starter. The 80-game suspension to LH Thomas Pannone doesn’t help their depth. Seattle: LH James Paxton; RH Felix Hernandez; RH Mike Leake; LH Marco Gonzalez; LH Ariel Miranda.
King Felix is still respected, but at age 32 has not been aging well. He won’t be ready for the start of the season, but soon thereafter. Paxton, the 29-year-old Canadian sits atop the rotation, with Mike Leake providing a veteran presence in the middle (but beware NL starting pitchers coming over to the AL). Right-hander Erasmo Ramirez has just started throwing again and will help bump up the M’s ranking. Others: The Angels might be considered except there is talk of a six-man rotation to accommodate the funky presence of 23-year-old Shohei Ohtani. That will need to play itself out before they crack the top halfdozen. The Twins are aiming to repeat as playoff participants, but even with future ace Jose Berrios leading the way and the additions of Jake Odirizzi and Lance Lynn, they miss Ervin Santana and the continued absence of Michael Pineda.
The Orioles? More 3s and 4s than a Latvian beauty pageant. The Rays? Even with Chris Archer, the union says they’re tanking. The Tigers? Francisco Liriano as a go-to guy? The Royals and White Sox? Could surprise.
The A’s? Sounds like a fiveman firm of Buffalo accident lawyers. The Rangers? More question marks than the Mysterions.