For Trump, ‘winning’ in Syria looks a lot like a faceplant
The U.S. president’s missile-threat bluster dramatically raises the risk of war with Russia — and quickly goes awry
The insanity of Donald Trump as America’s president has become an addictive daily freak show, much of it noise and nonsense, but its potential for catastrophe in this nuclear age is now staring us in the face.
The world is probably closer to a U.S.-Russia military conflict now than at any time since the Cuban missile crisis of 1962. And for what? Will a military attack on Syria by the United States and others do anything to prevent the heinous regime of President Bashar Assad — supported by Russia and Iran — from continuing to use chemical weapons as an act of war?
No, clearly not. After seven years of civil war, Syria is fragile and fragmented, but Assad has effectively won the war due to his allies. His forces control most of the population and the large cities. Since 2013, there have been dozens of chemical attacks by the Assad regime, and there is no sign this will stop.
Instead, will an American-led military attack on Syria — in spite of the lack of strategic or humanitarian benefit — run the risk of inadvertently hitting any of the thousands of Russians and Iranians stationed in Syria, possibly leading to a wider war?
BURMAN continued on IN9 Trump is showing he has no clue why the United States has been in Syria
The answer is clearly yes — and most analysts believe it is a high risk.
Trump is showing he has no clue why the United States has been in Syria. Two weeks ago, he shocked his military officials by announcing that the U.S. “would be coming out of Syria like very soon.” And then he changed his mind.
Even though he has ridiculed past presidents for giving the enemy advance warnings of a strike, Trump warned Russia in a tweet Wednesday that the U.S. was about to attack Syria in response to a suspected chemical attack: “Get ready Russia, because they will be coming, nicer and new and ‘smart.’ ” But a day later, he reversed himself.
Meanwhile, given the advance notice, the Syrian military was reported to be moving their forces closer to Russian and Iranian personnel. And Russia and Iran, for their part, vowed revenge against the United States if they were hit by any attack.
If the world ultimately survives a Trump presidency — and don’t bet on it — his tenure will likely be remembered as a slow-motion train wreck littered with self-created minefields around every corner.
Syria is only one of them. There are three more we can look forward to in the weeks ahead.
The first is the Robert Mueller investigation into possible criminal acts by Trump and his allies.
On that front, this has been a wild and desperate week for Trump. It is widely accepted he intends to fire Mueller and deputy attorney general Rod Rosenstein, which would surely trigger a constitutional crisis. The release next week of a “tell-all” book by fired FBI director James Comey will only add to the pressure.
The second is the Iran nuclear agreement.
Trump has to decide in a month whether the U.S. will pull out of the deal, and he appears determined to do so. That is certain to risk a new nuclear arms race in the world’s most explosive region. And finally, North Korea. Against the wishes of his advisers, Trump has agreed to meet with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in May or June. It is inconceivable that both leaders will agree on steps necessary for North Korea to fully “denuclearize,” raising fears this will only encourage the U.S. president to launch a pre-emptive strike.
As Trump kept promising his supporters during the 2016 campaign: “We’re going to win so much, you’re going to be sick and tired of winning. You’re going to come to me and say ‘Please, please, we can’t win anymore.’ ”
I suspect Americans have reached the “please, please” point by now.
BURMAN from IN1
Tony Burman is former head of Al Jazeera English and a freelance contributor for the Star. Follow him on Twitter: @TonyBurman