DIGGING DEEPER
Letting starters work three times through a lineup goes against the grain . . . the Jays don’t care.
No matter what teams might learn about handling starting pitchers from analytics — like being cautious about a third time through an opposing batting order — Blue Jays pitching coach Pete Walker and manager John Gibbons remain adamantly old school. They still ask their starters for 100-plus pitches and six or seven innings. Walker believes all five of his guys are enthusiastically on board.
“With (three postponements in the last week), our starters are well-rested, they’re strong,” Walker said. “We still feel we have a starting rotation that can pitch a third time through the order. Overall we’re pleased with what they’re doing, but I think in retrospect we need to get deeper into games. Even in this day and age of analytics and the way teams are built, we still want our starting pitchers to get into that sixth inning and preferably the seventh inning.”
The early-season numbers support the MLB geek squads and their twice-is-enough warnings. Heading into the Bronx on Thursday, the Jays rotation had started a third time through the order in all 17 games, and the results had not been pretty.
Facing the likes of J.A. Happ, Marco Estrada, Aaron Sanchez, Marcus Stroman and Jaime Garcia a third time, opponents had a .302 batting average (29-for-96), with seven doubles, six homers, three hit batters, a .552 slugging average and a .402 on-base percentage.
Of course it’s also the point of the game where managers will take their starters out at the first sign of trouble, which skews the numbers. And it’s where, in the Jays’ case, a sturdy, veteran bullpen enters the picture.
“I think we’re definitely ahead of the curve a little bit,” Walker said of the quickly established April roles for Jays’ relievers. “We brought some guys in not quite knowing where they were (in their careers).
“It’s an interchangeable group. Once we get to a little bit warmer weather, I think we’ll see even the velocities jump a little bit. We feel really good about all those guys right now. (Seung-hwan) Oh, (Tyler) Clippard, (John) Axford have been tremendous additions. They’re all finding their way right now, getting comfortable down there, but we’re comfortable with any of those guys in any situation.”
The Jays’ jackrabbit start has been helped by the fact that, from the seventh inning on, they have outscored opponents 42-14. That differential has allowed for seven comefrom-behind victories through Wednesday. The bullpen, meanwhile, is averaging more than 11 outs per game, converting six of seven save opportunities. Roberto Osuna is 5-for-5.
But Walker is also well aware that the Jays are not likely to roll all season with five healthy starters, plus right-hander Joe Biagini in reserve when there is a need for an emergency assignment. That does not happen any more.
In fact, over the past 18 seasons heading into 2018, the Jays had averaged 11 starting pitchers per year. That means somewhere in the minors there are likely five pitchers that will start later in the summer – if summer ever arrives.
“Obviously you envision your starting five, your rotation, to make it through the entire season but we know that’s somewhat unrealistic,” Walker shrugged. “To have (Biagini) down there whenever you need him and guys like (lefty Ryan) Borucki continuing their seasons … we’ve seen tremendous signs out of them in spring training and during (the 2017) season. We feel very good about the group we have and I look forward to watching these guys pitch every five days. Hopefully there are no hiccups along the way but, if there is, we feel good about it.”
One of the emerging prospects is Markham right-hander Jordan Romano, who turns 25 on Saturday. Romano has made two starts at Double-A New Hampshire, with 13 strikeouts in 12 innings, a 1.50 ERA and a 0.667 WHIP.
“Outstanding arm,” Walker said. “There are a few guys down there, but he definitely jumped out. There was a little inconsistency at spring training, some nerves, but he’s got a major-league arm. He’s got power, he’s got good breaking stuff, he’s a competitor … He’s definitely an up-and-comer and someone who you could see helping us at some point.”
There are others making impressions. Right-hander Sean Reid-Foley is off to a solid start (2-0, 1.46 ERA) with the Fisher Cats. Borucki looked solid in his lone start with Buffalo (five innings, two earned runs).
Of course, it’s not impossible for a rotation to stay healthy a full year. As recently as 2016, the Jays needed just seven starters in earning a wild-card berth. But that’s unusual. The one constant you can expect with the Jays is that the coaches will ask the starters to go as deep as they can.