This campaign will be anything but a snooze
Ana Bailao, city councillor for Ward 18, is a deputy mayor and housing advocate.
The Toronto municipal election campaign formally kicks off this week on May 1 — meaning candidates are free to start registering, raising money and campaigning. It will be a shorter campaign than the past few (which began on Jan. 1 of their respective years), but still quite a long slog to election day on Oct. 22.
Beware anyone who says they already know what the results will be: whole gardens will bloom and die between now and election day, an entire provincial election will happen in the meantime, almost the Blue Jays ' regular season will be over. If a week can be a lifetime in politics ( just ask Patrick Brown), then whole generations of change could happen over the next six months. Still, it may be helpful, starting at the beginning, to look at what to expect.
So far, this year’s mayoral race appears to be a bit of a snooze, with no obvious threats to John Tory’s re-election. Doug Ford had been promising to run against Tory from the right, but he changed track to try to become premier when the chance opened up.
No other likely conservative challengers are apparent.
A shakeup is in store for Toronto’s city council in the 2018 municipal election. Some incumbents are running provincially rather than in the municipal election, three councillors have said they won’t run again, and several new seats are up for grabs. For a couple incumbents, it’s unclear if they’ll win again. With 12 seats to watch, this election could result in a more diverse council. Right now, 86 per cent of councillors are Caucasian, despite more than half of Toronto identifying as a visible minority, according to 2016 census data. Of the current 44 councillors, only 14 are women.
NEW SEATS Ward 18
New ward boundaries will leave centrist incumbents Ana Bailao and Cesar Palacio to fight for what will become one seat on Toronto’s next city council. Both were chosen by Mayor John Tory to sit on his executive committee: Bailao is a deputy mayor and housing advocate, while Palacio is chair of the licensing and standards committee. Region: Downtown Population: 70,000 Residents who identify as a visible minority: 32 per cent Largest visible minority: Black
Ward 20
This new ward was created by the splitting of the current Trinity-Spadina ward. Incumbent Councillor Joe Cressy is expected to run in the other half (which will be Ward 24), leaving the new Ward 20 open. Region: Downtown Population: 36,000 Residents who identify as a visible minority: 44 per cent Largest visible minority: Chinese
Ward 21
The majority of this new ward was carved out of the CENTREROSEDALE ward, which is currently represented by Councillor Lucy Troisi. Region: Downtown Population: 28,000 Residents who identify as a visible minority: 39 per cent Largest visible minority: Black Ward 25 This new ward used to be part of Ward 27. Councillor Kristyn Wong-Tam is expected to seek re-election in Ward 27, leaving an open race for Ward 25. Region: Downtown Population: 43,000 Residents who identify as a visible minority: 43 per cent Largest visible minority: Chinese
Ward 29
A new seat will be filled in Ward 29, which includes roughly one half of what used to be the Willowdale ward. Incumbent Councillor David Shiner is expected to run in the other half. Region: North York Population: 57,000 Residents who identify as a visible minority: 69 per cent Largest visible minority: Chinese
PAST PROMISES Ward 22
Council appointed Lucy Troisi, a former parks manager, to fill Councillor Pam McConnell’s seat when McConnell died last summer. Troisi, a strong ally of Mayor John Tory, vowed not to run in the 2018 election (although nothing is legally preventing her from doing so). Region: Downtown Population: 41,000 Residents who identify as a visible minority: 53 per cent Largest visible minority: Chinese
Ward 37
Following through on a previous campaign promise, Councillor Mary-Margaret McMahon won’t be seeking a third term. The fiscally conservative Beach- es councillor committed to only serving two terms when she first ran in 2010, recognizing a need for “new terms and new leadership” as she wrote in an op-ed last October. Region: Downtown Population: 54,000 Residents who identify as a visible minority: 23 per cent Largest visible minority: Chinese
Ward 47
Council chose former city staffer Jim Hart to fill this seat after longtime Councillor Ron Moeser died in April 2017. Like fellow appointee Troisi, Hart is a Tory ally and promised to not run in the 2018 election. Region: Scarborough Population: 49,000 Residents who identify as a visible minority: 56 per cent Largest visible minority: South Asian
NARROW VICTORY Ward 14
Despite an endorsement from Tory and other conservative politicians, Councillor Christin Carmichael Greb won by the slimmest of margins in the 2014 election, beating out the runnerup by a mere percentage point. This term she’s maintained a low profile at city hall and resigned from two boards, raising speculation about whether she’ll secure enough votes to win again. Region: North York Population: 57,000 Residents who identify as a visible minority: 22 per cent Largest visible minority: Filipino
PROVINCIAL CALLING Ward 31
For the first time since 2003, former Councillor Shelley Carroll (she officially resigned earlier this month), a centreleftist, will not run for city council. She is focusing her energy on the provincial race as the Liberal candidate in Don Valley North. Region: North York Population: 61,000 Residents who identify as a visible minority: 71 per cent Largest visible minority: Chinese
Ward 32
Right-wing Councillor Denzil Minnan-Wong will run as the PC candidate for Don Valley East in the provincial election, leaving his city council seat open for the first time since amalgamation. Region: North York Population: 67,000 Residents who identify as a visible minority: 51 per cent Largest visible minority: South Asian
Ward 44
Centrist Councillor Chin Lee who was first elected in 2006, is leaving municipal politics to run for the Liberals in the Scarborough North riding. Region: Scarborough Population: 62,000 Residents who identify as a visible minority: 92 per cent Largest visible minority: Chinese Population data according to the 2016 StatsCan census