Can Justify quiet naysayers?
Favourite for first jewel of racing’s Triple Crown took unfamiliar route
Life’s been good to Bob Baffert, so far.
He’s trained four Kentucky Derby winners. He trained American Pharoah, the sport’s first Triple Crown winner in 37 years. He did not have a Derby entrant last year, so Baffert won the Kentucky Oaks instead.
Now, here he is again, at Churchill Downs with this year’s Next Big Thing in a field of Next Big Things, with 3-to-1 morning-line Kentucky Derby 144 favourite Justify.
“I feel very fortunate,” Baffert said this week.
This time, however, is it too good to be true? After all, Justify isn’t just your run-of-the-mill Kentucky Derby favourite. Unraced at age 2, the striking colt has just three career starts, all wins. His April 7 win in the Santa Anita Derby (Arcadia, Calif.) was his first stakes race.
“(Baffert) has told me he’s the best-looking horse he’s ever trained,” said Elliott Walden, CEO and president of WinStar Farm in Versailles, Ky., which owns Justify along with the China Horse Club, Head of Plains Partners and Starlight Racing.
“For Bob Baffert to say that, that’s an extremely high compliment.”
Justify is the son of the late Scat Daddy, who has three other Derby horses in Mendelssohn, Flameaway and Combatant. Bred by John Gunther’s Glenwood Farm, out of the Ghostzapper mare Stage Magic, Justify shared a paddock with Wood Memorial winner Vino Rosso.
Purchased by China Horse Club and Maverick Racing for $500,000 (U.S.) at the 2016 Keeneland September yearling sale, Justify was shipped to Baffert in California as a 2-yearold.
“When I got him over to Santa Anita, the first time I worked him there, I knew he was something really special,” Baffert said. “He worked five-eighths, and usually they get a little tired because our track at Santa Anita is really deep. He went around there and just did it ef- fortlessly. That’s when I knew he was a cut above the rest.”
His first start, on Feb. 18, Justify romped in a maiden race by 91⁄ lengths. His second start, 2 March 11, he romped in an allowance optional claiming race by 61⁄ lengths. His third race, 2 the Santa Anita Derby, he won by 3 lengths and posted a 107 Beyer Speed Figure, the best of any 3-year-old this year and his third consecutive triple-digit Beyer.
As the favourite, plenty will poke holes in his resume, however. Start with the so-called Apollo Curse. Apollo was the last Kentucky Derby winner to not race at 2. He won in 1882.
“Bodemeister almost got away with it but the pace got to him a little bit,” said Baffert of his 2012 Derby horse who finished second after being unraced at 2. “I don’t worry about it.” “He’s coming to the Derby a little short on experience, but heavy on talent,” Walden said. “We’ll see if that gets him through.”
Then there’s this: Saturday will be Justify’s first race not at his home track of Santa Anita. And this: He faced five-, fiveand seven-horse fields in his three races. Justify has beaten just 14 horses.
“When they’re good, they’re good,” said jockey Javier Castellano, who faced Justify on Santa Anita Derby runner-up Bolt d’Oro and will ride Florida Derby winner Audible in the Derby. “California Chrome usually ran in small fields and you saw how he performed over his career.”
OK, then how about this: Justify was able to make the easy lead and control the pace in the Santa Anita Derby.
Can he do that again in a 20-horse field?
“Justify, what a wonderfullooking, beautiful horse he is,” said Bolt d’Oro owner/trainer Mick Ruis. “We’re not making no excuses, but it’ll be different I think in the Derby here. He ain’t gonna be able to go out there all by himself.”
You don’t have to tell Baffert. He knows what he’s up against.
“We know we have a really good horse, but there’s a lot of really good horses out there this year,” the trainer said. “It’s probably the most competitive Derby I’ve seen in years.”
Someone mentioned to Baffert that he seemed confident entering the 2015 Derby with American Pharoah.
“You think I was confident? I was worried,” Baffert said, adding, “We don’t take anything for granted.”