Horse race turns into dogfight
The Ontario election was supposed to be over before it started.
You know the storyline: On the strength of his irresistible personality, Progressive Conservative Leader Doug Ford vaults to the finish line as the f frontrunner, sprinting past dead duck Liberal Kathleen Wynne and outhustling dark horse New Democrat Andrea Horwath. Not so fast. Handicapping a horse race — wwhat I call horserace-ism — only takes you so far if you’re wearing blinkers. Forget the home-stretch on an oval track — think of a three-ring circus wwith three different campaigns competing for our attention.
We got an early taste of the cross-currents Friday during the campaign’s second debate. Instead of coasting like a frontrunner, Ford emerged like an attack dog pouncing on the underdog Horwath — until both bared their fangs at Wynne, who in turn aimed her w wrath right back at them both.
Call it triangulation, where each leader tries to play their rivals off against one another. Consider the competing campaigns:
á The conventional electioneering has everyone ganging up against Wynne, knowing she is saddled with her last five years as premier. Ford and Horwath initially tried to make this election a referendum on an incumbent weighed down by the previous decade of Liberal rule.
A counterpoint to the antiWynne campaign is a gang-up against Ford, whose right-wing populism and pugnacity make him a lightning rod for Liberals aand New Democrats. What was supposed to be a comfortable PC march to power has instead turned into a referendum on wwhether Ford’s brand of dis- r ruption is a good fit for Cana- da’s second-biggest government.
A new undercurrent is the targeting of the traditionally third- place New Democrats. BBy bringing them into the fight Friday, Ford has turned the horse race from a cakewalk into a three-way dogfight.
As they jockey for position, ffew doubt Ford remains the f frontrunner. What remains in doubt is whether he can win a majority government that makes him undisputed premier, or be held to a minority that throws the balance of power into doubt. All of which makes this election as much a fight for second place as a battle for first, pitting Liberals against New Democrats.
Given the negatives attached to both Ford and Wynne, it was only a matter of time before attention turned to Horwath, wwho typically gets the highest popularity ratings — but also aan equally high number of “don’t knows” from Ontarians who haven’t given the NDP mmuch thought until now, let aalone voted for it. Horwath argued again Friday that she is t the default alternative to the other “two folks fighting about which one will make the worst premier.” That kind of disenchantment wwith Tories and Liberals often accounts for last-minute NDP surges in Canadian politics wwhen they have a clear runway. But by attracting attention so early in the campaign, Horwath may start to get more scrutiny than she is accustomed to.
In the first televised debate, held last Monday by CityNews on Toronto issues, Horwath had an easy ride as the other two leaders went at each other, aand kept casting herself as aabove the fray. Not so in Fri- day’s debate on Northern Ontario — where the NDP holds a number of seats, and Ford tried to eat their lunch.
Few Ontarians would have glimpsed the latest debate — conducted not in a TV studio dduring prime time, but a Parry Sound meeting hall over the noon hour where mayors from across the north wanted to hear about local issues. But it offered a preview into the strengths and weaknesses of tthe leaders as they prepare for t the all-important debate car- ried by most networks on May 27.
Ford still doesn’t look comfortable on camera, appearing especially inauthentic when insisting on his love of the people or place he is visiting. (“I love northern Ontario ... I care about the people!”) And he seems far from simpatico wwhen harping on “the NDP t that has the extremist environ- mental activists,” with Horwwath in the pocket of the “downtown Toronto elites” (he is from Toronto, she isn’t).
By contrast, Wynne has been notably reluctant to reciprocate against Horwath’s attacks on her, careful to avoid antagonizing progressives who might yet return to the Liberal fold. Given the broad similarities in their election promises — from pharmacare to child care — WWynne prefers to stress what t they have in common, while Horwath keeps insisting they aare dramatically different (in reality, they are far more similar to each other than to the Tories). Wynne, never a strong debater, keeps fighting over facts and ffigures as if she were still chair- ing a cabinet committee as premier, rather than an unpopular politician fighting passionately for her job. Whether Ford’s attacks hit their mark or detract from the marksman, they have changed the rules of engagement. While WWynne has taken has aim held early her in fire, the Ford campaign, turning it into a far different election — or elections — in its first week. There are still nearly four weeks to go — and one more leaders’ debate — before voting day on June 7.
Ford still isn’t comfortable on camera, seeming inauthentic when insisting on his love of the place he is visiting