WIN SOME, LOSE SOME
A look at the best and the worst moves of the off-season as baseball reaches its quarter point
The big free-agent freeze-out may not have sat well with major-league players, but so far the signees are not doing much to prove that teams were wrong for exercising caution during the off-season. Of the top free agents, many of whom didn’t sign until February and even March, only a few are making a splash — J.D. Martinez with the Red Sox, Wade Davis with the Rockies, Jake Arrieta with the Phillies. Meanwhile, many teams might be starting to regret talking themselves into spending, even those that thought they were smart in waiting out the market for what seemed to be bargains. Arrieta aside, the starting pitchers have been a disaster, from Yu Darvish to Jason Vargas to Alex Cobb to Lance Lynn. On the other hand, thanks in part to the Marlins’ fire sale, trades have produced better results so far for some teams, though the best deal of all was the Astros’ steal of Gerrit Cole from the Pirates. Of course, there does appear to be one bargain for the ages. Shohei Ohtani was limited to signing for only what teams had available in their internationalfree agent pool money, and so for a $2.3 million bonus from the Angels, Ohtani is living up to the hype as the Babe Ruth of Japan.
THE BEST MOVES
Gerrit Cole, Houston: Is it the pine tar increasing the spin rate on Cole’s fastball, as Trevor Bauer alleges, or better usage of his off-speed pitches, as scouts say? Either way Cole, with a 1.43 ERA and a league-leading 86 strikeouts in 562⁄ innings, has 3 been quite the steal for the Astros, who didn’t have to give up their best prospects to get him. Shohei Ohtani, L.A. Angels: Scouts questioned his ability to hit high-velocity fastballs, but since ditching his leg kick for a toe tap after a poor spring training, Ohtani has made it look easy, hitting some monster home runs. He can dominate as a pitcher as well. J.D. Martinez, Boston: Red Sox GM Dave Dombrowski’s patience paid off, as he waited out Scott Boras and got the top slugger on the market at his price — five years, $110 million with opt-outs. Martinez has had a huge impact as cleanup hitter for the Sox, hitting .342 with 10 homers and a 1.018 OPS. Matt Kemp, L.A. Dodgers: Here’s the biggest surprise so far. The Dodgers brought their one-time MVP candidate back from the Braves in a complicated deal that allowed them to dump even bigger contracts and get under the luxury-tax threshold. And Kemp has been the Dodgers’ best hitter. Wade Davis, Colorado: The Rockies moved quickly to get the ultrareliable closer for the same deal Greg Holland reportedly turned down —three years, $52 million. Davis entered Sunday with a major-league leading 14 saves.
Dee Gordon, Seattle: The Mariners got the second baseman fairly cheap in a trade from the Marlins and gambled by putting him in centre field. Scouts say Gordon is improving after some rough games in his new position, while he has helped fuel the Mariners’ strong start offensively as their leadoff man. Giancarlo Stanton, N.Y. Yankees: He hasn’t gotten on a home-run streak yet, which is surely coming, but Stanton has already won three games by himself with multi-home run games, and he adds to the intimidation factor of the Yankee lineup. Brandon Morrow, Chi. Cubs: The Cubs struck quickly to sign Morrow, who was so important in the Dodgers’ bullpen last season. For two years and $21 million he replaced Davis as their closer and hasn’t disappointed, with a 1.29 ERA and nine saves. Jake Arrieta, Philadelphia: The Phillies waited him out, got him late for three years, $75 million, and he has a 2.59 ERA over seven starts. His presence as a No. 1 starter seems to have helped this young team exceed expectations so far.
THE WORST MOVES
Yu Darvish, Chi. Cubs: Not exactly what the Cubs were expecting for $126 million, Darvish is 0-3 with a 6.00 ERA, and worse, dealing with questions about his mental toughness, after his own catcher suggested he was too relaxed. Going on the DL last week didn’t help his image in Chicago either.
Jason Vargas, N.Y. Mets: The Mets thought they were getting a relative bargain, signing Vargas for two years, $16 million. There were doubts because of his poor second half for the Royals, at age 35, but nobody could have imagined a 13.86 ERA after three starts. The Mets are skipping him a turn now, hoping he simply needed more time rehabbing from the broken bone in his nonpitching hand. Alex Cobb, Baltimore: With Cobb still unsigned in March, the Orioles jumped in late for four years, $57 million, thinking they signed a No. 2 starter. Now Cobb has a 7.06 ERA on a last-place team that needs to be blown up.
Lance Lynn, Minnesota: At least the Twins didn’t go a long-term deal, like the Orioles with Cobb, but signing Lynn late has proven equally disastrous, as evidenced by his 7.34 ERA. Marcell Ozuna, St. Louis: The one ex-Marlin acquired in a trade last winter who hasn’t delivered for his new team, Ozuna has three home runs, after hitting 37 last season. Ian Kinsler, L.A. Angels: Most everybody had Kinsler pegged for a bounceback after a down season in 2017, but maybe he’s in serious decline at age 35. He entered Sunday hitting .217 with a .605 OPS. Jay Bruce, N.Y. Mets: The Mets thought they got a bargain when they brought Bruce back, after trading him to the Indians last August, for three years, $39 million. But so far the notoriously streaky hitter has yet to get hot, with three home runs and a .697 OPS.
Lewis Brinson, Miami: Thought to be the best prospect the Marlins received in any of the trades they made, as part of the package for Yelich, Brinson has looked overmatched as a 24-year old rookie centre fielder, hitting .177 with a .230 on-base percentage and a .538 OPS. Bryan Shaw, Colorado: Shaw got one of the biggest deals for setup men, signing for three years and $27 million. He’s responded with a 5.30 ERA through Saturday.