United States
What’s at stake: “Traditionally we’ve tried to play a role of fireman in the Middle East. Now we’re playing the role of arsonist,” says Ilan Goldenberg, a former State Department and Pentagon official who runs the Mideast program at the Center for a New American Security. That seems to have plenty of currency in the region now, though some would also argue the U.S. has long played an incendiary role in the region, from reinstating the shah in Iran in the 1950s up to and including its wars in Iraq to the present day.
The Palestinians have essentially cut off contacts and say the U.S. cannot be an honest broker. So Trump’s promised “deal of the century” doesn’t seem to be in the cards for now. Trump withdrew from the Iran deal. He has by his side hawks such as National Security Adviser John Bolton, who has advocated for attacking Iran and regime change. Trump can’t decide on Syria — to keep the U.S. presence or not? He doesn’t seem intent on ruffling Putin over Syria unless chemical weapons rear their head again, which prompted U.S.-led airstrikes last month.
The administration is very closely allied to Saudi Arabia and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and seems set to continue following Riyadh’s lead on Yemen.
Washington may get an unpleasant surprise if a heavily pro-Iran government emerges in Iraq after last week’s elections.
What it wants: The administration is in complete sync with Israel and Saudi Arabia. Saber-rattling with Iran could escalate, and it shows no urgency in pushing for Israel-Palestinian negotiations.