Will Morneau give Alberta what it wants?

Federal Finance Minister Bill Morneau is coming to Calgary this week, and never has an appearance by a Liberal politician garnered so much attention. The Chamber of Commerce was notified only a few days in advance but the tickets for the luncheon sold out in a matter of hours.

That’s because Morneau is booked to speak on Wednesday, which also happens to be the day before Kinder Morgan’s self-imposed deadline for deciding whether to continue with the controversial $7.4 billion (and climbing) Trans Mountain pipeline expansion.

“I can’t think of any other single issue that was as tense, watched as closely and probably as important as what we are in the middle of over the next six days,” Tim McMillan, president and CEO of the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers, told the Financial Post last week.

There’s no question that Alberta politicians, oilpatch heavies and ordinary Albertans have worked themselves into a lather about the future of the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion.

It was given the green light by the federal cabinet 18 months ago and would carry three times the amount of diluted bitumen than it does now to the B.C. lower mainland for loading onto tankers destined for the U.S and Asia.

But its future is now shaky because of the legal gymnastics of John Horgan’s NDP government, which contends the heavy, sticky bitumen is perilous to the land and coastal waters should there be a spill. Protesters at Kinder Morgan sites have also slowed things down.

The Trans Mountain isn’t just a pipeline anymore; it’s become a powerful symbol of economic versus environmental rights. So what news is Morneau likely to deliver when he comes to Calgary this week?

Kinder Morgan has already made it clear that shareholders are edgy about the pipeline expansion because the delaying tactics of the Horgan government and the targeting of Kinder Morgan facilities by protesters are costing the company too much money.

In the midst of negotiations with Kinder Morgan, Morneau announced the federal government is willing to compensate the U. S-based pipeline giant, for any losses it may incur due to delaying tactics or the eventual abandonment of the project.

The feds and Alberta Premier Rachel Notley have also suggested buying the pipeline, turning it into some sort of Crown corporation and pushing ahead with construction if Kinder Morgan decides to bail out.

That seems far-fetched because they would have to buy the existing pipeline, as well as the added capacity and all the tank farms and other infrastructure that go with it.

But governments in Canada have long inserted themselves into the welfare of the private sector. The oilsands industry likely wouldn’t be as key to the Alberta and Canadian economy if it weren’t for all the taxpayer money invested in it by Premier Peter Lougheed.

But federal economic power has usually been wielded in favour of central Canada.

One of the reasons westerners became so enraged with Brian Mulroney’s government and turned to the Reform Party was Mulroney’s decision to award a $100 million, 20-year contract for maintenance of Canada’s CF-18 fighter jets to Quebec-based Canadair (later swallowed by Bombardier, which has also benefitted from government largesse) rather than the lower-priced bid of Bristol Aerospace of Winnipeg.

Even Stephen Harper, who rose through the ranks of the Reform Party to become prime minister, didn’t flinch much when he agreed to bail out General Motors and Chrysler in Ontario to the tune of $9 billion during the 2009 recession.

Morneau wouldn’t be coming to Calgary to talk to the Chamber of Commerce on such short notice and so close to the Kinder Morgan’s decision deadline if he was bringing really bad news.

So some sort of deal that favours Alberta’s interests has likely been worked out.

Kinder Morgan isn’t talking at this point but they hold all the cards. If they pull out because the federal offer isn’t good enough, the Trudeau and Notley governments will have lost a crucial political battle. But if Kinder Morgan has agreed to some sort of backup plan that depends on billions of public money taxpayers may lose out.

Because in the end there is no guarantee the opposition in B.C. will stand down and let the pipeline through.