No trying in baseball? It is to weep
Tanking for draft success doesn’t work in MLB where results are so hit and miss — take note, Jays
Tanking is not an effective strategy in baseball, so for those who suggest their team should lose on purpose to secure a higher draft position the next June, shake yourselves.
Major league baseball is not the NHL, NBA or NFL. There is very little in the way of instant gratification from the entry process for high school and college players in baseball. The Blue Jays have zero players from the last five drafts currently on their 25-man major-league roster.
The 2018 draft takes place June 4 to 6, and success or failure will not likely be known for three years.
Fans often point to the Houston Astros as an example of a tanking strategy working out. The perception exists because they won the 2017 World Series championship over the Dodgers following years of losing that produced a series of high draft picks. But let’s have a closer look.
The Astros mercifully abandoned the old, rat-infested Astrodome for a brand new downtown ballpark in 2000. In three of their first six seasons at the new digs, they advanced to the post-season. In four of the first eight seasons there, they drew more than 3 million fans.
Then the bottom fell out. From 2009 to 2014, the Astros seemingly tanked. For six straight seasons, they never won more than 76 games, bottoming out at 51-111 in 2013. It was their third consecutive season in the 50s in wins. The bright side of that abject failure was three straight June drafts (2012-14) in which they were rewarded with the first overall pick. In those six years, they never had a first selection lower than No. 11. It should have been tanking heaven.
Sure, they struck gold in 2012, choosing shortstop Carlos Correa with the first overall pick, but then missed the mark twice at No. 1. They failed to sign their top pick in 2013, right-hander Mark Appel, and in 2014 it was left-hander Brady Aiken who did not sign.
Overall, the June drafts that followed those six losing seasons did result in the addition of some significant pieces, but it is hard to make the argument that losing led directly to winning a World Series ring.
Players drafted by the Astros in the 2010-15 stretch who were key to last year’s championship team include Correa, outfielder George Springer (2011), third baseman Alex Bregman (2015) and right-hander Lance McCullers (2012). Credit for building a World Series champion, though, should not go to tanking. It should go to GM Jeff Luhnow and his staff for bringing in the right mix of veterans and young talent, then topping it off with a gutsy trade for Justin Verlander that put them over the top.
As for the Blue Jays and whether, after a dramatically bad month of May, they should blow it up and tank in search of a top pick, once again: This is not hockey, basketball or football. I can accept the argument that, if you want to give up on 2018, you should trade veterans for any assets you can acquire to clear the deck for youngsters to be called up — but never look to the draft.
Consider that there are no players from the past five June drafts on the current Jays roster. From 2009: pitchers Ryan Tepera and Aaron Loup. From 2010: pitchers Aaron Sanchez and Danny Barnes. From 2011: outfielders Kevin Pillar and Dwight Smith Jr. From 2012: Marcus Stroman.
How did the Jays do with their first pick over the past eight Junes? Their first choices since 2010 were, in order: right-handers Deck McGuire and Tyler Beede, outfielder D.J. Davis, right-handers Phil Bickford, Jeff Hoffman, Jon Harris and T.J. Zeuch, and shortstop Logan Warmoth. Of that group, only McGuire played in the majors with the Jays. Beede and Bickford never signed. It’s a crapshoot.
One more thing. Recall back at spring training, with numer- ous unsigned free agents, the players union began to insinuate that there was some sort of collusion in the marketplace and that several teams looked like they were tanking – specifically the A’s, Marlins, Pirates and Rays. It should be noted that two of the four accused tankers are above .500 and three of them have a better record than the current Jays — including Oakland, which recently swept a four-game series at the Rogers Centre.
LONG LISTS: Since the reduction of minimum time on the disabled list to 10 days, more teams have taken advantage and used it to give players time to heal from minor injuries, rather than playing through it. As of Monday, there were 187 major-league roster players listed on the 30 disabled lists, or 6.2 per team. Given that hefty average, the Blue Jays — while awaiting further word on Josh Donaldson’s calf, which forced him out of Monday’s game in Boston — were on the low end with five: outfielders Randal Grichuk (right knee) and Steve Pearce (oblique), right-hander Marcus Stroman (shoulder fatigue) and shortstops Aledmys Diaz (left ankle) and Troy Tulowitzki (double bone spurs).
SKIPPER’S QUEST: Blue Jays manager John Gibbons is moving up the ranks in all-time wins. The much-maligned skipper, with eight full seasons and parts of three others in two separate stints with the Jays, has 745 wins — 87th out of 704 all-time managers. Next on the list is Ozzie Guillen with 747. Gibbons ranks 11th among active managers, with Bruce Bochy of the Giants the leader. With 10 post-season victories, Gibbons is tied for 45th, one ahead of the respected Buck Showalter of the Orioles.