Horwath has long been a populist
STRATFORD— On the campaign trail, Andrea Horwath’s whistlestop tour is on a roll.
Another day, another poll showing her New Democrats climbing. And cutting a swath through southwestern Ontario, methodically mowing the Liberals’ lawn and encroaching on Tory territory.
At this stop, Horwath delivers a quick pep talk to about 100 loyalists chanting “Andrea!” outside the local campaign headquarters, describing the “special” feeling in the air and on the ground.
But after boarding her campaign bus, suddenly a sign ... an unexpected omen — perhaps providential — from a past premier:
David Peterson ambles by in summer shorts and T-shirt and, seeing her campaign bus, wants to say hello. Horwath steps out for some friendly banter.
But then Peterson shares this political wisdom — or truism — from personal experience: “It’s f fun if you think you’re winning, not fun if you think you’re losing,” he muses. Peterson should know. History records that his Liberal government lost power to the NDP nearly three decades ago for the first and last time in Ontario.
Is history about to repeat itself? The only certainty is that after her last two losing campaigns, and a tough leadership review after the 2014 election — when many New Democrats questioned her progressive credentials — Horwath is having the campaign of her life.
In the countdown to the June 7 vote, how did her NDP leapfrog from last to leading contender in the latest polls?
Is Andrea-mania breaking out across the land? Or is Horwath merely playing a winning hand?
For most of her nine years as leader, she won the best personal approval ratings. Yet almost as many people told pollsters they didn’t know her, or have an opinion of her — framing her as likeable but unknowable.
On the cusp of becoming premier (or coming a close second), Andrea, we hardly know ye.
After all these years in opposition, Horwath is still better at asking pointed questions than responding to tough ones.
On the campaign stump this week, stumped by a reporter’s persistent queries about how she could possibly reduce hydro rates by a further 30 per cent, Horwath cut her off with, “I think it’s pretty clear that I’ve answered the question.”
In fact, she hadn’t — merely changing the subject from the holes in her electricity-rate-reduction promises to her preferred talking points on Hydro One.
The controversial sale of Hydro One is Horwath’s touchstone, an elixir from the gods.
When the governing Liberals sold off roughly half of the transmission utility, Horwath profited politically, rallying her NDP base and converting mmuch of the electorate to the cause of public ownership.
And yet it never quite paid off at the polls, as the Progressive Conservatives soared to the top and her New Democrats remained dead last. Even when the PCs erupted in turmoil earlier this year, voters stuck wwith them and the NDP stalled.
All that changed when the Tories settled on Doug Ford as ttheir provocatively populist leader last March. The more voters get to know Ford the less they like him, and even if tthey didn’t know Horwath all tthat well they are liking what t they see.
And so it appears that Horwath is capturing new votes as mmuch because of who she isn’t as who she is: She is not Kathleen Wynne, nor Doug Ford. And nothing like Bob Rae, as she keeps reminding reporters who ask about Ontario’s last NDP premier, voted out in 1995 after one tumultuous term. So who is she, exactly? On the stump, Horwath has long pursued her own brand of populism, stressing pocketbook issues such as lower gas prices at the pump, HST holidays on hydro, and opposition to road tolls — prompting public criticism in the past from environmental groups.
And while she is running a far more progressive campaign in 2018 than in 2014 — offering cheaper child care, extended dental benefits and partial pharmacare — Horwath’s old habits die hard. Political platitudes are deeply ingrained in her public persona.
At a morning campaign event, she lays out the “stark choice” between Wynne and Ford before lapsing into the practiced vocabulary of a veteran politician: She speaks repeatedly of “everyday families” ((five references); “change for t the better” (seven times); and her favourite, regular “folks” ( six times), not to be confused with “rich folks.”
Yes, there may be embarrassing holes in her platform (not just on hydro, but a $1.4-billion math mistake — belatedly plugged — in the NDP’s deficit nnumbers) not to mention awkward questions about her f fidelity to the labour move- ment (even if that means letting strikes go on indefinitely), but these problems are far off in the future for most Ontarians.
Horwath may not be well known, but for voters facing unpalatable and unpopular choices, she is good enough. With the other leaders lacking, she is the last one standing, still in good standing.
For now, for better or for worst, many voters are looking f for a safe harbour in stormy Tory waters.
After abandoning a sinking Liberal ship, they are hoping Horwath has the buoyancy — if not the balance — to keep their vision of Ontario afloat. And more or less in equilibri- um.
Which is why Horwath’s whirlwind tour still has the wind at its back.