Martin Regg Cohn
Despite his mistakes, Ford is winning on one front: the promise to shake things up,
Make no mistake about how Ford Nation wins over a prov- ince.
It matters little how many mistakes Doug Ford makes on the stump, or how many televised debates he’s botched.
Even if the Progressive Conservative leader often looks like he’s running a losing campaign, most polls still show his party poised to win the most seats in next week’s election. Yes, his early lead has declined, but Ford could well become premier with a majority government.
The more Ontarians see of him, the less they seem to like him. So why is Ford seemingly losing his way to victory?
Populism isn’t about being right or wrong. It’s about being seen to be on the right side of tthe issues, of the people and t their pain.
While his provocative messages have turned off many Ontarians, they resonate with people in the right ridings, the ones outside large urban areas wwhere Tories can convert votes into victories.
Questions about his personal character? Supporters see a plain-speaking character, a man of the people who stands up to the so-called elites.
For all the talk of his checkered past — using abusive language when challenged; handing out $20 bills while touring public housing; allegations of drug dealing in his 20s (denied but never challenged in court) — Ford’s rough-hewn rhetoric stands him in good stead on the podium.
When not reading from a Teleprompter in front of re- porters (who are limited to four or five questions a day), he marches to his own distinctive beat onstage.
“My friends,” he begins. “We will always respect you. Change is coming, help is on the way,” he tells a London audience, flanked by Ontario flags and a podium proclaiming “Doug Ford — for the people.”
He provokes lusty boos by bashing the NDP. He promises magical hydro rate reductions and tax cuts (details to come), a and that he’ll slash $6 billion in waste without anyone “losing t their jobs.”
His closing is borderline biblical: “A new day will dawn in Ontario . . . God bless you.” If there is an evangelical, messianic quality to his campaign sermons, they are perhaps a leap of faith for Ford Nation.
Questions about his credibility? All those criticisms may be beside the point.
Didn’t he promise a fully costed platform, showing how he’d eliminate the budget deficit while simultaneously cutting taxes, with nary a layoff? This week Ford went back on his word — and his numbers.
Economists and reporters pointed out that his partial plan would put the province deeper into debt than it would be under the Liberals or New Democrats. And yet, those earnest academics and meddling media are perhaps missing the point.
Even if he can’t keep his facts straight, isn’t he a straight shooter? Have we not learned that he is less interested in substantive positions than positioning? Isn’t it clear by now that he is all about personality, not policy?
Why insult the intelligence of Ford Nation, telling people wwhat they already know? Ev- eryone knows the numbers don’t add up, but their leader will shake things up. Which is why he’s winning so many hearts and minds.
It all sounds persuasive enough onstage in London, but the next night in Windsor there is a discordant note from Ford. Donald Trump has just announced punishing tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum.
“Terrible news,” the PC leader muses onstage. But then his public response to the threat takes a jarring turn. “Make no mistake about it, we’re going to go after them full tilt — on reducing our taxes, making ourselves more competitive.”
Wait — Ford is staring down Trump’s higher tariffs by talking up lower taxes? And where does he go from here?
“We will go down to the street at the border and put up that big sign I’ve been talking about aand tell our neighbour, ‘Ontario is open for business.’”
This is how Ontario’s putative premier would confront the U.S. president’s tariff attack? Perhaps this is what makes Ford so surprisingly terrifying.
It’s not the buffoonery, the vulgarity, the chicanery, the qquestions about character and trust and temperament. No, what is most daunting about tthe man is that he is so over- flowing with confidence, yet so lacking in competence.
In the week Ontario was buffeted by the beginnings of a trade war, his only response was to repeat a bumper-sticker slogan — the wrong one. While other leaders talked about defending the province’s vital trade routes, Ford lapsed into non sequiturs about tax cuts.
Another miscue? Make no mistake, the blunders will catch up to Ford Nation’s province sooner or later — if not before June 7, then surely after.