Jays play short game for second straight year
The draft was setting up nicely for the Blue Jays to choose a college pitcher No. 12 overall. There were three topranked pitching prospects still available as the Jays were placed on the clock by commissioner Rob Manfred.
Instead, they chose shortstop Jordan Groshans, a high school player from Magnolia, Texas.
“Coming into the night Jordan was somebody that we certainly had targeted as a player that we hoped to have the opportunity to add to the organization,” director of amateur scouting Steve Sanders said via conference call. “A lot depended on how the board broke and what type of things happened in front of us, but Jordan was definitely a name all along that we hoped to have an opportunity to select.”
It’s the second straight year that the Jays have tabbed a shortstop with their No. 1 pick. In 2017, they selected University of North Carolina product Logan Warmoth at No. 22. Warmoth is playing at Class-A Dunedin.
“We’ve seen a lot of (Groshans) as a hitter,” Sanders said. “Not just this spring with his high school season, but also dating back to last summer where we got to see him hit with a wood bat against some of the better competition in the country. We just feel Jordan has a lot of the attributes we’re looking for both in his swing, his combination of contact, of power, of plate discipline.”
Groshans is a six-foot-four, 190-pound right-handed hitter who projects as possibly a major-league third baseman. He has committed to the University of Kansas, where he would join his brother Jaxx, a catcher for the Jayhawks. The thing about college commitments is that all premium high schoolers have one, but in many cases they opt for college in order to improve their draft slot and come back into the process for more money. The slot money for the Jays and the 12th pick is $4,200,900 (all dollars U.S.).
“I think we’re certainly confident that we’ll be able to work something out and have Jordan join the organization.
“But again, college commitments are certainly something we’re aware of going into the draft,” Sanders added.
As the first round unfolded, the Tigers — who had been cursed with the worst record in baseball in 2017, tied for last with the Giants — were blessed with the No. 1 pick in the June draft of amateur free agents. Detroit, as predicted by many websites and publications, chose right-hander Casey Mize, a 21-year-old from Auburn University. Mize had not even been selected in the draft three years earlier.
“It means a lot,” Mize said after the Tigers announced their pick. “I’d like to thank my parents. I can’t describe this feeling right now.”
The Auburn Tigers have made it through the regionals and are headed to Omaha for the College World Series, with Mize leading the way. He is 10-5 with a 2.95 ERA in 1092⁄ 3 innings, allowing just 77 hits with 12 walks and 151 strikeouts.
There was no surprise at No. 1, with the only doubt whether the organization would be willing to meet the dollar figure that Mize is expected to demand. The slot number is $8,096,300.
The first Canadian selected was catcher/third baseman Noah Naylor of Mississauga, 29th by the Cleveland Indians. Naylor, 18, has a commitment to Texas A&M after playing for the Canadian junior national team. Naylor’s older brother Josh was chosen 12th overall by the Marlins in the 2015 draft.
The first overall pick does not guarantee future major-league success. Certainly the success rate of No. 1s has improved in the last decade because of analytics, plus outside scouting resources and dedicated media that serve to either confirm or throw shade on an organization’s assessment of any player they and their scouting people might have pinpointed.
Analytics have been invaluable in levelling the playing field, in comparing high school players from various regions and separating various conference strengths, Division I and below.
That theory — that more information from your scouts makes a huge difference — can be confirmed by evaluating the boom-or-bust list for No. 1 picks through the years.
Understanding that the jury must still be considered out on any assessment surrounding the success or failure of selections from the past five drafts, examining No. 1 picks in order from 1996 to 2012 reveals mixed results.
Over the past 23 years, leading the “bust” category are right-handers Kris Benson (’96) and Matt Anderson (’97), outfielders Pat Burrell (’98) and Josh Hamilton (’99), righty Brian Bullington (’02), outfielder Delmon Young (’03), shortstop Matt Bush (’04), righty Luke Hochevar (’06) and shortstop Tim Beckham (’08).
In the boom category are first baseman Adrian Gonzalez (2000), catcher Joe Mauer (’01), outfielder Justin Upton (’05), left-hander David Price (’07), right-hander Stephen Strasburg (’09), outfielder Bryce Harper (’10), righty Gerrit Cole (’11) and shortstop Carlos Correa (’12). Over the past five drafts, only shortstop Dansby Swanson has been a sure-fire hit, selected by the Diamondbacks, traded to the Braves and in his third year in the majors.
The draft continued Monday night with the supplemental picks, plus the full second round with the Jays choosing 52nd.
The rest of the 40 rounds will take place on Tuesday and Wednesday.