RUNNING AGAINST HISTORY
Justify has everything to complete the Triple Crown — but there are reasons why it’s a rare feat
When a Triple Crown is on the line in the Belmont Stakes, the race boils down to one essential question: Will he or won’t he? Justify will arrive in New York without any obvious rival for 3-year-old thoroughbred supremacy. The Kentucky Derby and Preakness champion could face as many as 10 challengers on Saturday, most of them far better rested than he. But the more pressing opponents are his own potential limitations and the inherent difficulty of the Triple Crown. Though American Pharoah made it look relatively easy three years ago, the 37 years of futility that preceded him taught us that the five-week test is, in fact, maddeningly hard. Here are some storylines to watch as we look forward to his attempt.
DID THE PREAKNESS INDICATE THAT JUSTIFY IS A TIRING HORSE?
For perhaps the first time in his three-month blitz on the sport, Justify looked worn out as he approached the wire at Pimlico Race Course.
Jockey Mike Smith said he eased him up slightly, because he was confident the victory was in hand. But by almost any measure, Justify’s performance in Baltimore was a step back from his 2 1⁄ length victo2 ry in the Derby.
As rival trainer Chad Brown noted the day before the Preakness, it’s extremely difficult for any young horse to improve race after race. And Justify had already come so far since his maiden start Feb. 18. Not to mention, he had to run on a mud-caked track for the second time in two weeks.
All of those factors might have kept him from showing his best. And he still won — the mark of an excellent horse and potentially a classic one.
Trainer Bob Baffert has said he expects Justify to rebound with a big effort at Belmont. The massive chestnut looked terrific the morning after the Preakness, and he breezed half a mile in a striking 46.8 seconds on Tuesday morning at Churchill Downs.
Jockey Jerry Bailey and others have noted that the best horses often fool us by looking sensational in training. We often can’t see how tired they are until they have to dig deep in a big race. The 1 1⁄2 mile Belmont could certainly offer Justify that kind of test.
The history of Belmont runners coming off tired efforts in the Preakness is poor. But the best horses, the Triple Crown winners, turn history on its head. ARE ANY CHALLENGERS THREATS TO JUSTIFY IF HE’S ON HIS GAME?
Probably not. He wins the resume race in this field by more lengths than he won the Derby.
We have the usual array of returning challengers from the Derby, including seventh-place finisher Hofburg, who closed well despite a difficult trip at Churchill Downs, and Wood Memorial winner Vino Rosso, whose owners feel he’s built for distance.
Tenfold made up significant ground on a tired Justify in the stretch of the Preakness, and his trainer, Steve Asmussen, seemed eager for a rematch.
Bravazo ran gamely in both the Derby and Preakness, where he finished a close second. But his trainer, D. Wayne Lukas, calls Justify the King Kong of this class.
Lukas always says you have to show up and run in case the big guy falters. And that’s essentially the story for each of the 10 potential challengers. WOULD THE ABSENCE OF AUDIBLE TAKE AWAY FROM JUSTIFY’S ACHIEVEMENT?
The Triple Crown aspirant is owned by the same group that owns his would-be top challeng- er. In announcing that Audible would not run, trainer Todd Pletcher said his horse was not doing as well as he had been in the run-up to the Derby and that he preferred to freshen him for the summer.
But skeptics will say the ownership group, led by Win-Star Farm, wanted to clear the way for Justify to win the Triple Crown.
From a business standpoint, such a call would be understandable. From a pure sports standpoint, Audible’s absence is a bummer. He ran as well as any horse over the second half of the Derby. HOW MUCH STAR QUALITY DOES JUSTIFY BRING?
American Pharoah’s three races after the Triple Crown felt like festivals as casual fans flocked to celebrate a generational talent. But as industry analysts had warned, no one horse was going to reverse the business declines that have weakened racing in so many parts of the country.
Justify certainly could be a star of the same ilk. Like Pharoah, he’s trained by the enduring face of the sport in Baffert. He’s undefeated. He’s a magnificent looking animal — about the same height as Pharoah but packing an extra 100 pounds of muscle.
The swiftness of Justify’s rise sets him apart from previous Triple Crown candidates. Even Baffert had not seen him run until January. As soon as he did, he knew he had another monster on his hands.
Given the barriers he’s already smashed, this is a horse to remember even if he does not win at Belmont.