Ford win could ultimately be a gift for Trudeau

Justin Trudeau already has his hands full with one political disrupter south of the border. Now he must deal with another leading the country’s second largest government.

In the short- term, a Doug Ford FF Progressive Conservative government at Queen’s Park promises chaos if not outright confrontation with the Liberal government in Ottawa.

In the longer term, however, Ford FF as Ontario premier may be just the gift that Trudeau needs.

The Trudeau team can’t be certain, however, because it remains to be seen whether Premier Ford will continue the relaxed demeanour of candidate Ford or, now that victory is his, we will see the unbuttoned Ford which Toronto and the province knows only too well.

Areturn of the Ford bombast and ill- informed invective would be where the smart money should go, after former Stephen Harper strategists kept him on message, under wraps ww and as bland as possible on the campaign trail.

The first point of confrontation could come with Ford’s promise to keep this province free of any “carbon tax.” He would take Ontario out of a cap- and- trade partnership with Quebec and California.

He would be joined by other conservative premiers, including Saskatchewan’s Scott Moe, Manitoba’s Brian Pallister and, potentially, Alberta’s Jason Kenney if he is elected next year, in opposing the Trudeau carbon pricing plan.

Moe has already launched a court challenge to the Liberal plan and Ford will now have a chance to join the Saskatchewan challenge.

The confrontation would come with the federal determination to impose its own carbon tax on provinces that fail to adopt programs that meet national targets to control emissions.

With Ford in Ontario and Kenney KK in Alberta, the Liberal climate plan — a signature element of Trudeau’s first term — could be in full retreat during a federal election year.

Ford has also signalled that he would ww be far less the warrior against a American protection- ism than Kathleen Wynne.

The new premier- elect delivered the most tepid reaction among aa the three provincial leaders to U. S. President Donald Trump’s steel and aluminum n tariffs, promising to “work domestically to make Ontario and Canada more competitive.”

He has promised to work with ww Ottawa to resolve trade issues and make “Ontario open for business again.”

Ford might want to study an Abacus Data poll released on election day that showed 82 per cent of self- declared Conservative voters oppose the Trump tariffs and 65 per cent of them back the Liberal government’s retaliatory measures.

The Trudeau Liberals must also deal with the collapse of its voting base in Ontario. Nowhere ww are Liberal cousins closer than in the Ottawa-Queen’s Park axis and they have watched a historic defection of the Liberal vote to provincial New Democrats.

Next year voters will be asked to differentiate between a tired provincial brand and a federal brand seeking re- election.

And this is where Ford can provide a boost for Trudeau.

The federal Liberal challenge in 2019 will be looking fresh and aa progressive again after a term in office.

By using the polarizing Ford — who will likely be into a phase of slashing government programs and services — as a foil, Trudeau will have an easier time looking like the 2015 progressive when compared to the Progressive Conservative government.

The Trudeau Liberals have already aa tried to conjure the ghost gg of Harper in order to remind voters of how unpopular the Conservatives had become. They have been trying to paint the unthreatening Conservative leader Andrew Scheer as “Harper with a smile.”

If that doesn’t work, Ford will do just fine, especially if he is surrounded by veterans of the Harper years in senior positions. Harper openly backed Rob RR Ford’s bid for mayor of Toronto TT and the Fords hosted a rally for the Conservative prime minister in the dying days of the 2015 federal campaign.

Trudeau will never win over “Ford Nation” voters, the most dedicated of whom are the first to demonize Trudeau for his efforts at Indigenous reconciliation, aa combating climate change cc or working to incorpo- rate gender equality into his initiatives.

But confrontation only works for one party in federal- provincial dealings.

It worked for Kathleen Wynne when she was still riding a wave of popularity and launched a very public campaign against an unpopular Harper, who would not meet with her.

It is unlikely to work for Ford in a federal election year.

If he wants to butt heads with the tt Prime Minister next year, t that should be a skirmish that Trudeau would relish.