Cup is rarely won at start of July
It really depends on the objective.
If it’s to make a splash and attempt to convince skeptical home fans that management is doing everything in its power to win, signing unrestricted NHL free agents to massive contracts can absolutely be an effective tool.
But if it’s to actually win, well, most of the time it’s best to stay away. Fish for talent somewhere else. For the most part, with the unrestricted types, you’re paying a large free-agent premium for players past their prime, and almost always you’re paying players for what they’ve done, not what they can do.
That’s not to say unrestricted free agents can never help a team move closer to a championship. Four years ago, for example, the Washington Capitals signed defenceman Matt Niskanen to a seven-year contract and rearguard Brooks Orpik to a five-year deal. The two contracts cost the Caps in excess of $67 million. As of today, as the Capitals, superstar Alex Ovechkin and owner Ted Leonsis plan the franchise’s first Stanley Cup victory parade, they would probably say it was worth every penny.
That said, it did take four years for Niskanen and Orpik to help get the Caps past the second round. Both were good players on this championship team, but neither is a core player, despite salaries that pay them in the top third of the Washington payroll.
Beyond Washington, you have to get to Minnesota’s Zach Parise at No. 25 on the highestpaid NHLers list, and teammate Ryan Suter at No. 26, before you hit players who reached that status by signing as UFAs with a new team. That pair carries a combined $15million annual cap hit, they’re under contract until 2025, both have struggled to stay healthy, and the Wild have won two playoff series in six years since signing them.
In the past two years, the list of players signed as expensive free agents who have had a measurable impact on their new teams is small, so small that it should have other clubs seriously thinking about looking for cheap bargains on July 1, rather than blowing their brains out on one “difference maker.”
Two years ago, the big signees were Milan Lucic (Edmonton, seven years, $42 million), Keith Yandle (Florida, seven years, $44.5 million), David Backes (Boston, five years, $30 million), Kyle Okposo (Buffalo, seven years, $42 million) and Andrew Ladd (New York Islanders, seven years, $38.5 million)
Last summer, the biggest individual winners were Kevin Shattenkirk (New York Rangers, four years, $26.5 million), Patrick Marleau (Toronto, three years, $18.75), Alexander Radulov (Dallas, five years, $31.25 million) and Karl Alzner (Montreal, five years, $23 million)
Of the nine teams that signed those players, seven of them missed the playoffs entirely this season. Only the Bruins won a round, and Backes hasn’t been good value for his contract. The Lucic and Okposo deals, meanwhile, are going to haunt their teams for another five years.
The Leafs were probably satisfied with the return on their investment with Marleau, but he didn’t help them get past the first round. The year before, they tried mightily to sign Steven Stamkos to what would have been a cap-busting UFA contract, but Stamkos elected to stay in Tampa. That deal over time may prove to be one the Leafs were fortunate to avoid.
Both 2016 and ’17 were fairly thin free-agent classes. This year, centre John Tavares and blueliner John Carlson top the list of available UFAs, and the expectation is that both will attract multiple lucrative offers from both their own teams, the Islanders and Capitals, respectively, and from other clubs.
They will be advertised by their ambitious agents as difference makers, players who can quickly elevate the fortunes of any team. Turn a pretender into a champion. That’s the pitch.
There are also other interesting UFA names, like James van Riemsdyk, Jack Johnson, Kari Lehtonen, Rick Nash, James Neal, Ilya Kovalchuk and Paul Stastny. There’s also going to be more money in the system, with the salary cap expected to rise $5 million or more to upwards of $80 million per team.
More money plus more available talent probably equals more temptation. And almost certainly more mistakes.
The thinking in many cities, and certainly Toronto is one of them, is signing a player like Tavares or Carlson could vault their team upwards, possibly into the position of Stanley Cup contender. That thinking fits with those who view the Maple Leafs as just one player away from bringing the Cup back to Toronto.
But recent history suggests this isn’t the way to a Cup, as tempting as it might be. Instead, trading for players with two or more seasons left on existing contracts seems to work more reliably and is usually more affordable. Pittsburgh, for example, did it with Phil Kessel and won two Cups.
Add impact players through trades like that, then sift through the free-agent bargain basement for cost-effective players like Devante SmithPelly, and then use them as support players for your core players, almost all of whom are draftees. The Capitals beat Vegas primarily because their core group, consisting of Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, Evgeny Kuznetsov, Braden Holtby and Carlson, was superior and finally figured out how to win. All of those players were originally drafted by Washington, not purchased on the open market.
Signing a high-end UFA to be one of your core players, like Tavares or Carlson would be? That’s an iffy proposition. You could argue Chicago did it, and won, with Marian Hossa. But it’s not easy to find another good example in the recent past.
There will be a lot of pressure on certain teams to sign Tavares or Carlson.The hard part for teams is to resist the temptation. But when it all heats up over the next few weeks, the smart teams, the winning teams, probably will.