Arms won’t win this race
It might just be coincidence that the Blue Jays started tanking in the standings after losing closer Roberto Osuna following his arrest on May 8, followed a day later by losing No. 1 starter Marcus Stroman to right shoulder fatigue.
But after losing their two most important pitchers, the Jays consistently failed as starters. That, in turn, led to inevitable exhaustion in the bullpen as a heavier workload and hastily expanded roles took the veterans out of their comfort zone. Sure, things may have started turning around and, yes, Stroman is on the verge of making a return, but he needs to be better and be available.
Stroman is expected to log a Class-A rehab start on Wednesday and, if that goes well, could be back shortly thereafter. Even though the start to his season was atrocious — he went 0-5 with a 7.71 ERA in seven starts — Stroman’s return cannot come soon enough. He is not a playoff answer. The Jays are buried too deep to salvage contender status, but they are not too deep to play around .500.
There have been recent rays of sunshine with a revamped rotation that once included Stroman, then subbed in Joe Biagini and now right-hander Sam Gaviglio. The starting quintet has begun to respond with more quality starts of six-plus innings and three or fewer earned runs. Sure, we understand quality starts are not the sign of a great rotation, but that combination of innings logged and earned runs allowed will always keep you close in ball games, and that’s something that had not been happening for a while as the Jays spiralled.
Here is a summary of the subtle upgrades in performance that have been provided by the current five-man rotation”
J.A. Happ: He has been the most consistent Jays starter by far and would clearly draw interest from true contenders at the trade deadline. He has a 2.20 ERA over his last five starts, averaging more than 61⁄ 3 innings per outing, striking out 34 hitters in 322⁄ 3 innings.
Aaron Sanchez: The young right-hander missed most of the 2017 season and is still a work in progress for his comeback 2018. Over his last 11 starts, he has a 4.13 ERA, with 53 hits in 61 innings, walking 36. His problem has been control of the strike zone and command within the strike zone. If Sanchez continues to regain his form of 2016, he can help this team reach mediocrity.
Marco Estrada: The veteran fastball-changeup specialist has begun to mix in the curve- ball and in his last two starts has one walk and 15 strikeouts in 12 innings. The question now becomes how long will it be before video scouting forces him to adjust again. He is too streaky at this stage of his career.
Jaime Garcia: It would be tough to peddle the 31-year-old left-hander to anyone at the deadline without paying a large chunk, or all, of his $10-million contract. Over his last three starts, the groundball specialist has a 3.68 ERA in 142⁄ 3 innings, with three walks and 12 strikeouts. He needs to be better.
Sam Gaviglio: Circumstances, including makeup doubleheaders for the Jays, gave Gaviglio the opportunity to start for the Jays and he has taken full advantage. In his five starts, including Monday’s loss, the 28-year-old right-hander has a 3.90 ERA, allowing 27 hits and eight walks, striking out 23 in 272⁄ 3 innings. He works quickly and throws strikes and, even when Stroman returns, will likely have a significant role as a long man, perhaps replacing Biagini.
When the 2018 season began, Biagini was acknowledged as the first man up if ever there was an injury to the regular rotation. But the expectation was always that it was a temporary state of affairs, with several young horses at Double-A New Hampshire and Triple-A Buffalo ready to put in their time, get their innings in, learn how to pitch and by the middle of the season be ready to blow by Biagini on the Jays’ starting pitcher depth chart. Biagini at this point might not even be in the top 10.
Consider the Jays’ options after the trade deadline if they were to trade away Happ, Garcia or another one of the starters. They still have Gaviglio, but they also have choices from an improving trio of young starters: left-hander Ryan Borucki, 24, right-hander Sean-Reid Foley, 22, and Canadian right-hander Jordan Romano.
With the original five starters (plus Gaviglio and Biagini), they have used seven thus far. Borucki is 5-5, 3.29 ERA in 63 innings at Buffalo. Reid-Foley started at New Hampshire and was promoted to Buffalo. He is 6-1, 3.36 ERA in 612⁄ 3 innings. Romano, mostly with the Fisher Cats, is 9-1, 2.87 ERA in 69 innings.
There are enough bad teams in baseball that the Jays could conceivably ride an improved performance from the starting rotation to finish the season the final three months at around .500. But that level of mediocre baseball is not going to provide a contender and, at that point, the diminished crowds of under 30,000 at Rogers Centre on most nights will just encourage the front office to seek to trade veterans for prospects. It hasn’t happened yet, but it’s on its way.