Will North Korea change?
“Kim trusts me, and I trust him.”
That remarkable statement by U.S. President Donald Trump following his historic summit meeting in Singapore with North Korean leader, Kim Jong Un, clearly stunned many people, particularly Americans concerned that Kim may have actually outfoxed Trump during their recent negotiations.
Some American power-brokers were shocked Trump went so far during a post-meeting press interview to state that Kim Jong Un “loves his people,” a remarkable statement considering that more than 100,000 North Koreans were reportedly in prison camps and Kim had his uncle by marriage executed by firing squad and allegedly had his own older half-brother assassinated in Malaysia last year via a lethal poison which killed him almost instantly.
However, notwithstanding Kim Jong Un’s repressive rule, one issue that clearly alarms sectors within the U.S. is Trump’s apparent willingness to consider terminating the annual military exercises carried out jointly by American and South Korean armed forces.
Pyongyang denounces the annual military exercises as intended to threaten North Korea and has repeatedly demanded they cease if there’s to be any end to the dangerous tension on the Korean Peninsula.
However, any suggestion the U.S. should terminate the military exercises, or that American military units stationed in South Korea — numbering approximately 25,000 — would be removed, is not something American military leaders view as in the U.S.’s strategic interests.
If anything, some within the American power structure regard the U.S.’s current bases in South Korea critically important for logistical reasons as they observe the increasing efforts of China to expand its own interests in East Asia, coupled with China’s territorial waters claims against several neighbours.
Trump’s openness to conceivably withdrawing U.S. forces from the Korean Peninsula is thus a highly sensitive issue for many American politicians. This also includes South Korea’s President Jae-in Moon, who reportedly received no advance knowledge of Trump’s intended concession.
Interestingly, several Republican politicians, including Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, have already questioned Trump’s willingness to reduce American forces in South Korea. Other Republicans have expressed similar concern, reportedly including Sen. Lindsay Graham and Sen. Cory Gardiner.
The key question still to be answered is what kind of assurances Trump received in return for considering ending the annual U.S.-South Korean military exercises. While Trump has now gone on record saying publicly he trusts Kim, the fact remains the most important issue still to be negotiated concerns ending North Korea’s nuclear and intercontinental missile programs, which Trump himself had publicly insisted must be terminated if possible American military action against North Korea was to be avoided.
So far, Trump has not made any reference to what kind of commitment may have been made by Kim to satisfy the U.S. and other countries that the perceived nuclear threat will be dealt with.
Few believe Kim would give up the nuclear and missile programs completely unless there were ironclad non-ag- gression commitments and large-scale trade and economic inducements promised by Washington and others. Notwithstanding statements by Trump that he believes Kim is truly committed to normalizing North Korea’s relations with South Korea and the international community, the challenges confronting that goal will be intimidating.
Even Moon is keenly aware of the extremely difficult challenges that await both countries, regardless of any mutual desire for peaceful relations or conceivably eventual unification.
Nevertheless, according to Trump, Kim, “Wants to do what’s right.”
According to Kim himself, “The world will see a major change.”
Some American critics may regard Trump’s seemingly pragmatic and unorthodox approach to reaching a peaceful breakthrough with Kim as simply the latest evidence of his unpredictable and potentially dangerous self-serving egomania and his endless attempts to undermine the reputation of past U.S. presidents, especially Barack Obama, winning the Nobel Peace Prize in the process.
In any event, the abrupt firing of three of North Korea’s top military elite by Trump’s newly announced peacemaker acquaintance, suggests not everyone in North Korea may share their young leader’s assurances on truly changing the nature of North Korea and its relations with the international community.