Tavares for $16M no mad max
One-year pitch by Leafs to bring in Isles captain could pay off now, later
John Tavares to the Maple Leafs.
The idea has been floated a million times. It’s taking on a life of its own. And it can work so that the Leafs would boast Auston Matthews, Nazem Kadri and Tavares next season and be a powerhouse down the middle.
It makes sense on so many levels — for the short-term and the long-term — it ought to be general manager Kyle Dubas’s focus.
There are a lot of moving parts to this, including the contract status of Matthews and Mitch Marner, Matthews’ relationship with head coach Mike Babcock, and the possible notion that Matthews might want to play for his hometown team — Arizona — as much as folks believe Tavares might want to play for his hometown team in Toronto.
But let’s break it down:
SHORT TERM
Dubas needs to convince Tavares to join the Leafs for one year. To do so, he needs to offer Tavares the maximum allowable under the salary cap: 20 per cent, or about $16 million U.S.
(I used to think this idea — sprung over dinner on the road once with Sportsnet’s Chris Johnston — didn’t have wheels. I argued against this with Johnston when he brought it up. But I think he’s right. It can work.)
The short-term idea fits because the Leafs have plenty of cap space this season, but it’s looking like they will run into trouble starting in the 2019-20 season when Matthews and Marner will be (presumably) on long-term deals.
Why would Tavares do that? Well, the one-time payday would make up for the bargainbasement contract he took from the New York Islanders (six years at an annual average value of $5.5 million).
Like Marian Hossa did with his one-year gamble in Detroit, Tavares would be gambling on himself to try to win a Cup in Toronto while deferring his long-term payday. The Leafs are deep and getting better. Tavares is a workhorse, an elite talent and Babcock is a fan.
LONG TERM
It promises to be an odd summer, and potentially a season of distractions, if the Maple Leafs don’t sign Matthews and Marner to long-term extensions when their window opens July 1. The Leafs will certainly get a taste of what they’re in for. If there’s any sense that re-sign- ing Matthews or Marner is going to be an issue, then Toronto would have Tavares in its back pocket. He, too, would be eligible for a long-term deal with the Leafs once he inks the shortterm one. The Leafs would also be eligible to offer him eight years on a long-term deal; other teams could only offer seven.
Marner’s agent, Darren Ferris, has a history of having players hold out. It’s doubtful Matthews would sign before Marner signs. They’re friends. They’d probably want to do it together.
I’m betting neither signs until the completion of next season, betting on themselves to have big years followed by big paydays.
CONTRACT TALKS
I’m all for star players getting the big bucks. I don’t think any star player should ever take a haircut or a loyalty discount. That’s bad management. You end up paying role players more than they’re worth. Those are bad, immovable contracts. For example, Connor McDavid took less money than he’s worth with Edmonton (eight years, $12.5-million average annual value). If they’d paid him more and, say, three years from now they wanted to trade him, he’d be tradable regardless his contract value. Not so much Milan Lucic, who got paid way more as a role player than he is worth ($6 million a year through 2022-23). Make the role players take the cut in pay to play alongside the big stars. Not the other way around.
That was a long way of saying I believe Matthews and Marner will, and should, ask for tons of money. They probably will. Matthews will probably end up with a higher dollar value than McDavid based on percentage of the salary cap. If he gets the same portion as McDavid (16.67 per cent) then he will get more money. The cap could well be at $85 million in a year’s time, meaning Matthews would be worth around $14 million.
WORST-CASE SCENARIO
Let’s suppose the Leafs balk at Matthews’ and Marner’s asking price … Let’s suppose a rift between Babcock and Matthews gets worse, especially if Matthews and Marner don’t play together as they want to and feel their offensive numbers are being suppressed in a contract year … Let’s suppose the pull of playing for your hometown team affects Matthews as much as the world believes it affects Tavares … Let’s suppose the Coyotes are waiting in the woods for July 1, 2019, to offer Matthews, a restricted free agent, the moon to come play for them with the NHL’s highest offer sheet to date …
Having John Tavares in the fold is one hell of a backup plan.