DECISIONS, DECISIONS
LeBron James was in L.A. when the NBA market opened. Hmmm ...
LeBron James is about to switch NBA teams for the third time in his career. Or he will soon pledge to stay with his home-state Cleveland Cavaliers.
Either outcome will be as noisy as it gets for the social media masses clamouring for NBA player movement. Whether LeBron bolts for Hollywood — he returned to his Los Angeles home Saturday after a vacation in the Caribbean, according to The Associated Press — or opts to stay in northeast Ohio, his choice ensures seminal status for the freeagent summer of 2018.
An off-season headlined by King James is, by definition, unforgettable.
But disclaimers, I’m afraid, are required. The serial worrier in me can’t resist issuing a stern caution to those who hunger for the modern-day Transaction Game as much as (or more than) the game itself.
Money will be tight in the freeagent marketplace, which was set to open Sunday at 12:01 a.m. Eastern time. Really, really tight.
Therefore, the frenzy so many of us savoured a year ago, when the starry likes of Chris Paul, Jimmy Butler, Paul George, Kyrie Irving and Carmelo Anthony scored new addresses, won’t be easily replicated.
The prospect of James signing with the Los Angeles Lakers — as many front offices would forecast if they were forced into a tprediction — and the Kawhi Leonard saga in San Antonio should be enough to satiate those captivated by the NBA’s growing reputation as the most heated of hot stove leagues.
Just understand that those adventures may have to be enough to satisfy those desperate for drastic change.
It has been hard to ignore the whispers steadily rising in volume for the past month that George, the all-star forward, is strongly considering signing a two- or three-year deal to stay with the Oklahoma City Thunder.
The Houston Rockets, meanwhile, are widely expected to simply focus on re-signing their free agents Paul and Clint Capela in hopes of bringing back essentially the same team that fell just one win short of an NBA final berth. They’re scarcely even mentioned anymore as a potential James destination.
The current climate, in general, offers scant hope of fireworks. Only eight teams have the ability to create salary-cap space that exceeds the league’s estimated $8.6 million (U.S.) midlevel exception — and at least three of those teams (Atlanta, Chicago and Sacramento) are likely to use their cap space to try to facilitate trades and acquire future draft picks instead of chasing free agents.
Of the eight, only the Lakers and the Philadelphia 76ers are regarded as contenders for players in the James-GeorgeLeonard tier; Dallas, Phoenix and Indiana are the other caproom teams. Many clubs are looking ahead to the 2019 offseason, when the salary cap is projected to rise to the $108 million range, from roughly $101 million, and half the league should have cap space.
The New York Knicks’ president, Steve Mills, in a radio interview with ESPN’s Stephen A. Smith, announced that New York did not plan to give free agents anything other than one-year contracts to maintain maximum financial flexibility for summer 2019. The Knicks, though, will hardly be alone when it comes to pitching short-term deals.
Even the mighty Lakers, flush with spending money, aren’t quite sure what they can accomplish in the month ahead.
Magic Johnson, at a news conference where he expounded on the Lakers’ free-agent strategy, made a case that the only team in the league with the cap room to sign two stars outright would still need “two summers” before he could be fairly judged as the team’s top executive.
Just two years removed from the wild (some would say reckless) spending in summer 2016 after the salary cap jumped a record $24 million because of an influx of television revenue, here’s an indication of how hamstrung many teams feel by luxury-tax concerns and the like: There were no trades during this year’s draft involving current NBA players. That hasn’t happened, according to research by ESPN’s Kevin Pelton, since 2003.
But those are all post-LeBron concerns. Nothing else matters much until James has landed.
You’ll recall that in his first two stints as a free agent — in 2010 and 2014 — James announced his destinations on July 8 and11. League traffic tends to come to a standstill while he deliberates.
Perhaps his decision-making will be faster this time. Perhaps not. Either way, James’s fate — as well as how the teams chasing him respond to whatever he does — will dominate discussion along with the potential resolution of San Antonio’s season-long Kawhi crisis.
My biggest questions beyond LeBron:
Can the 76ers win the trade sweepstakes for Leonard, since it looks as if their dreams of James or George were just that?
Will the Boston Celtics cash in some of those shiny assets they’ve stockpiled to spring another Irving-size summer surprise?
Is the marketplace as grim as it looks for the all-star big man DeMarcus Cousins after he tore his Achilles?
I know what it’s like for the Transaction Game groupies out there. You’re going to be breathlessly following along no matter what. You’re hooked.
Just be sure to brace yourself for the possibility that it will be a summer light on landscapechanging business.