DON’T BE SURPRISED BY FLIP OF QUARTERS
Brazil the favourite, but don’t count Belgium out of this tourney of upsets
And then there were eight.
A World Cup that has delivered its fair share of shocks and upsets continued that trend in the Round of 16, particularly the ousting of favourites Spain by outliers Russia.
Whether or not the host country can continue its unexpected run will be one of the main storylines heading into the quarter-finals, along with the meeting of four powerhouses in a pair of games. There’s also the weakness of one side of the bracket that could conceivably see the likes of Croatia, Sweden or England reach the final, none of which came into this tournament as likely candidates for the title. Brazil remains the favourite heading into this round, according to statistics website FiveThirtyEight, with a 30-percent chance of winning it all.
Here’s a closer look at how the next round might play out over the next two days:
FRANCE VS. URUGUAY Friday, 10 a.m. (TV: all matches on TSN)
France looked more like the contender it was believed to be at the outset of this tournament during a Round of 16 win over Argentina, counterattacking with fluidity in a 4-3 thriller. But Uruguay is a much stiffer test than Argentina, who barely scraped through to the knockout round. The South American country may not include as many big names as the French side, but the team does have world-class talent within its ranks and expertly works together to maintain a solid defensive shape, conceding just one goal so far. Relying on the counter will be a far more diffi- cult approach for France in this match; they’ll need more out of the likes of striker Antoine Griezmann, whose only goals thus far have come from the penalty spot. The familiar criticism that has plagued France of late — that the talent is there but the team is unable to put it together — could rear its ugly head again against a Uruguayan side that has easily gelled.
Pick: Uruguay
BRAZIL VS. BELGIUM Friday, 2 p.m.
It’s the world No. 2 against No. 3 in what is widely considered the most exciting game of the round — and one of the biggest of the tournament to date. Brazil came into the tourney as one of the favourites, with Belgium something of a dark horse contender. Despite the latter’s high spot on FIFA’s list, winning the tournament still escapes them, while the Brazilians have five wins to their name, a history that could play a part in this game. Belgium’s 12 goals are the most by any team in the tournament, but the likes of Romelu Lukaku and Eden Hazard will be faced with a stingy defensive opponent in Brazil, which hasn’t conceded since its first game against Switzerland. Brazil made easy work of its Round of 16 opponent, Mexico, the only team in that round to win by more than one goal. Belgium survived a scare against Japan, coming back from 2-0 down to win 3-2. They can’t afford any hiccups like that against the Brazilians, whose backline should make the difference in this game.
Pick: Brazil
ENGLAND VS. SWEDEN Saturday, 10 a.m.
If you’re looking for a nail-biter, you should find it in this match. Sweden will come into this game considered an underdog, but the team has all the tools to overcome England. They’ve conceded two goals in this tournament, both to favourites Germany, who they eventually helped knock out of the tournament in one of the World Cup’s biggest shocks. The Swedes’ defensive organization has impressed and they’ve found holes on the counterattack to make their mark. On the other side of the field, England has struggled to create from open play since their second group stage game against Panama, and has conceded one goal in each of its five matches. The difference between these two teams could be the presence of a star. Sweden is without a game-changing big name, but England is not. Striker Harry Kane, the English captain, who has made it clear he’s more than willing to put this team on his back, has a prolific six goals off just nine shots and currently leads the World Cup’s race for the Golden Boot.
Pick: England
RUSSIA VS. CROATIA Saturday, 2 p.m.
The host country will hope that their fairy tale run continues on Saturday, but Russia once again has a mountain to climb if it wants to cause another upset. Russia should take its cues from Denmark when it comes to shutting down midfielders Luca Modric and Ivan Rakitic, who control the game for the Croatians when given the time and space. Croatia cruised through the group stage but, by paying particular attention to Modric and Rakitic, the Danish were able to force penalties in the Round of 16. Still, coach Zlatko Dalic will have considered what worked and what didn’t in the first round of the knockout stages, too. Should he be able to get his team back to the standards it upheld in the group stage — which Croatia cruised through with three wins — Russia’s unlikely run should come to an end. Pick: Croatia Round of 16 record: 6-2