Theresa May paints herself into a corner on Brexit
Pity poor Theresa May.
Pressed into delivering a Brexit she only reluctantly supports, the British prime minister is now taking fire from its true believers, including Boris Johnson and David Davis, both of whom recently quit her Cabinet to signal their displeasure with her approach to leaving Europe. Coupled with a growing displeasure on the backbench over the proposed “hardness” of her Brexit, Prime Minister May’s plans for exit now lie in tatters.
And then Donald Trump blew through town.
On the day of his arrival to Britain, Trump delivered a withering rebuke of May’s Brexit strategy, saying that he had advised her to sue the EU. only for her to ignore him. Adding insult to injury, Trump then took a potential U.K.-U.S. trade deal off the table — the key prize for Brexiters — while also endorsing her rival Johnson.
With a “special relationship” like this, May must have wondered, who needs enemies?
Things did eventually improve for the prime minister. In keeping with his habit of being unctuous with leaders while standing next to them, Trump later walked back his attacks during a joint news conference with May. The trade deal was upgraded back to a possibility. Trump then praised their personal relationship and even wished May well in future negotiations with Brussels.
Not that any of it improves May’s fortunes. The prime minister’s problem isn’t the European Union. Or Donald Trump. It’s the disunity in her Conservative party, and her inability to get anything other than a muddled Brexit through Westminster.
Indeed, the path to securing internal Tory agreement on Brexit has been both bloody and tortuous, featuring resignations and public slanging matches. It was only last week — two years on from the referendum result — that May brought Brexit back under some control, announcing the support of the cabinet for her latest plan. Two days later Davis quit, with Johnson following suit the next day. And the backbench? Don’t ask.
Not that May is blameless; the two decisions that have made Brexit almost impossible to deliver are hers alone.
In March 2017 May triggered Article 50, initiating a strict two-year countdown to exit the EU. But she did it without any consensus over the shape of the Brexit she was to pursue. May then took 16 months to secure that understanding.
The consequences of May’s delay are dire. Instead of having two years to negotiate with the EU, May is left with only months, with EU leaders demanding a final text by this fall. And that’s only if May get can her current plan off life support. If forced back to the drawing board her negotiating time shrinks further and the chances of a “crash exit” — leaving the EU without any deal — go up significantly. The impact on the British economy would be ruinous.
Again, May has only her own poor decision to blame.
May called a snap election weeks after triggering Article 50 — ostensibly to strengthen her negotiating hand with Europe — and then stumbled badly during the campaign, losing her majority government in the process.
Badly weakened yet still alive, the challenges from May’s internal rivals started coming thick and fast. And instead of projecting strength and firing rogue ministers to re-establish her authority, May chose to muddle through, gambling her rebels wouldn't want to risk triggering a leadership race or an election that could see Labour's Jeremy Corbyn come to power.
May was proven correct, but it sent a poor message: there was no reason to fear Theresa May.
And so here we are. May simply doesn’t have the numbers to deliver what her party promised voters: leaving the European single market and customs union.
Nor does May have the Conservative numbers to deliver her current plan — a fudge involving an integrated market on goods, with an exit of sorts on services — which could command a majority in the House of Commons. And even if she does pass that plan, there's no guarantee Europe will have any of it.
May is caught in a Brexit trap of her own design.