More police don’t necessarily mean less crime, data shows

In the wake of Sunday night’s deadly shooting on Danforth Ave., policy-makers are again debating whether police need more resources to protect the city.

On Tuesday evening, city councillors approved a five-year, $44-million violence reduction plan, which relies on unsecured funding from senior governments. It calls for investments in community supports and increased enforcement — including 200 additional officers previously announced by Mayor John Tory and police Chief Mark Saunders.

Premier Doug Ford called Monday for a portion of the province’s mental health support budget to go to police.

The claim that Toronto needs more law enforcement resources has long been supported by members of the police union. Toronto Police Association president Mike McCormack has referred to a “police staffing crisis,” saying officers face burnout from overwork caused by thinning ranks and budget cuts.

But some advocates and experts say that’s short-sighted, and better community supports would be more effective at preventing crime than adding more officers.

Data from major urban centres across Canada — 2017 figures were released this week — shows the correlation between the concentration of police officers and crime severity is tenuous, if present at all.

Generally, crime as measured by Statistics Canada’s crime severity index has gone down in Toronto, Halifax, Edmonton, Calgary and Vancouver since 2000, even as the size of their police forces has fluctuated. The index is a weighted measure that includes both the frequency and severity of crime, measured against Canada in 2006 as a baseline.

When looking only at firearm offences — any criminal charge involving pointing or shooting a gun — the relationship to the number of officers is even weaker. The data for Vancouver and Edmonton showed almost no connection between the two factors.

The link seems stronger in Toronto, at least recently. The number of police officers per 100,000 residents dropped from 215.8 in 2011 to 180 last year.

At the same time, firearm offences rose from 4.11 offences per 100,000 residents to 8.69 offences. Yet, prior to 2011, there was little correlation.

The differences show that any connection between the factors is far from clear-cut.

Bryan Kinney, an associate professor of criminology at Simon Fraser University who studies crime prevention and reduction, said local factors play a major role. The presence of organized crime, the way police forces are organized and the way officers track crimes in different cities can all have an impact, he said.

Kinney added that the effect of adding police officers would depend on how well-resourced a police force was to begin with.

“If we were massively underpoliced, the next 100 officers could be really useful,” he said.

But he doesn’t think that’s the case in Canada’s big cities.

If there’s a need for more officers, he said, it would be because handling high-profile cases requires an increasing amount of time and resources.

“There’s a current, really highprofile effort to try to understand gang-related offences and shootings,” he said.