Poland’s most powerful man isn’t well. Questions are swirling
WARSAW, POLAND— With the nation embroiled in a bitter dispute with the European Union over its drift away from Western democracy and the rule of law, and similarly concerned protesters taking to the streets weekly, Poland is at a crossroads.
But at this critical moment, the man who set Poland on its current course, and who has arguably done more to shape the country than any single politician since it broke free of Soviet domination three decades ago, has been largely absent.
Jaroslaw Kaczynski, 69, the leader of the ruling Law and Justice Party and the most powerful politician in Poland, is not well.
Ever since he went to the hospital in May, for what was described at the time as a knee surgery to treat osteoporosis, there have been questions swirling about his health. He ended up staying in the hospital for 37 days, and since he left, he has only made a handful of public appearances.
His absence has already led to jockeying for power within his party, and exposed deep divisions that could ultimately prove its undoing.
“Until now Kaczynski has kept the power of different factions in check,” said Wojciech Przybylski, the editorin-chief of Visegrad Insight and chair of Res Publica Foundation in Warsaw. “But the fight for the dominance will be bloody between leaders from the younger generation.”
Government officials have sought to tamp down concerns about the party leader’s health, as has Kaczynski himself, dismissing the idea that he will be leaving the scene anytime soon as “rubbish.”
Still, there have been hints that Kaczynski’s condition is far graver than officials have let on, including recent comments made on a private Polish radio station by the deputy minister of health, Lukasz Szumowski.
“His state of health was such that not admitting him to a hospital might have resulted in a threat to his life and the likelihood of that was high,” he said.
Kaczynski’s health has been a topic of discussion not just in Poland but also in Brussels, where officials confirm that his condition is serious and that there is considerable interest in what it will mean for Poland and its fraught relationship with the European Union.
“We don’t know the truth about his health,” said Olgierd Annusewicz, deputy head of the Centre for Political Analysis at the University of Warsaw. “It’s hidden. It’s more hidden than the health of the first secretaries from the days of the Soviet Union.”
Whatever the case, Kaczynski’s absence has been unmistakable. And it has raised questions about what happens when he leaves the scene and what will become of his grand vision for the country.
“Kaczynski is hugely important to Law and Justice,” Annusewicz said. “He is at the core of its DNA.”
Kaczynski has worked to manipulate various factions for his own interests and further secured his position by dispatching those who might pose a challenge to the sidelines, ensuring that no one else accrues too much influence.
There is no obvious heir apparent and no one, at the moment, who shares Kaczynski’s popular support or political skill. Still, signs of an internal power struggle within Law and Justice have been growing.
Annusewicz, describing the infighting, used an analogy often attributed to Winston Churchill trying to figure out what was happening in the Kremlin.
“It’s like bulldogs fighting under a carpet,” he said. The struggle is largely hidden from public view, but once the bones of the loser spill out it is clear a battle has been waged and who has won.
Kaczynski, in a July interview with the rightwing news weekly Sieci, downplayed concerns about his health, saying the reason for his lengthy hospital stay was “an acute knee infection” involving “dangerous bacteria.”
“I am getting better,” he said. “All is getting better.”
But he also said that the government needed to act with a renewed sense of urgency.
“Let me say this very clearly: We need to move forward, we need to go faster, we need to launch new projects, we need to push ever harder.”
And he acknowledged the growing divisions within his own ranks.
“Those intergovernmental disputes that, if I’m being honest, are going on, need to be crushed,” he said.
Among those competing for power are the nation’s president, prime minister, justice minister and interior minister.
According to recent polling, none of them has broad public support. In fact, half of all respondents have no idea who could replace Kaczynski.
Interior Minister Joachim Brudzinski, 50, is the closest to Kaczynski, a friend for more than 25 years, and is on the top of many political analysts’ lists of possible successors. He is one of Kac- zynski’s most trusted advisers.
Brudzinski is known as a fighter, outspoken and frequently crass, once equating political correctness with terrorism. He said that European feminists would want to buy roses for “young, horny bulls called ‘refugees’ who once again might feel ‘provoked’ to rape on New Year’s Eve.”
For years, Brudzinski served as the president of the Law and Justice executive committee, which has made him the second most powerful politician in Law and Justice.
Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki has the highest profile and has become the nation’s public face in its disputes with the European Union, but he is still perceived as an outsider within Law and Justice and does not have wide support within the party.
The country’s president, Andrzej Duda, who was picked by Kaczynski to run for president, lost the confidence of the party leader after he unexpectedly vetoed an earlier attempt to reform the judiciary. Kaczynski refuses to confirm that Duda will run for president in 2020.
“The differences between possible successors in terms of ideology are almost nonexistent,” Annusewicz said. “They aren’t fighting for their vision for Poland to win, they are only after the power and lucrative posts at state companies.”
“Kaczynski is hugely important to Law and Justice ... He is at the core of its DNA.”
OLGIERD ANNUSEWICZ
UNIVERSITY OF WARSAW