Tulowitzki is the Jays’ best option
It seems trendy at the moment among Toronto fans and media to make light of the 33-year-old Troy Tulowitzki and his desire to return as the Blue Jays’ shortstop in 2019. We all know he’s on his way to missing all 162 games of 2018 after missing 96 games in 2017. Tulowitzki suffered a horrible ankle injury at first base as he hustled down the line on July 29 last year trying for an infield hit.
Nobody takes his assertion seriously that he can be the man again. Yet because of what he has accomplished in his career and the belief he has in himself, Tulowitzki should be respected and given every opportunity to make that comeback a reality. There seems to be a pushback against the five-time all-star because he makes a lot of money and has not been able to play. Yet in 2015 and 2016, when the Jays went deep into the post-season, he played a major role.
In town for the weekend, Tulowitzki met with media on Sunday for 10 minutes in the home dugout of the Rogers Centre and outlined his plans, which included reporting to spring training next year in good health and winning the starting shortstop job, but he did not include any possibility of a position change to second or third base.
Tulowitzki even rashly suggested to media that if someone was to beat him out at shortstop next spring, he would pack his bags and go home. That promise might have to be reviewed later on because he has $38 million guaranteed sitting on the table for 2019 and 2020, and if any player does actually retire he gives up any rights to guaranteed money. But before we go there, Tulo may well be right about his chances to win back his old job if healthy. Here are the facts as we see them:
If you go by this year’s MLB rosters, Tulowitzki is not too old to be a key contributor and a steadying influence on the 2019 Jays. He will be 34 years old the entirety of next season. There are currently 55 position players that are 34 or older in the majors on active rosters or disabled lists. The only three teams without a position player at 34-plus are the Phillies, White Sox and Rays.
As Tulowitzki pointed out Sunday, he brings more to the field than just his glove and his bat, both of which are clearly not what they were in his prime with the Rockies. But if you watch carefully, there is Tulo’s game within the game. He backs up plays, positions other infielders and subtly places himself in the right position to make tough plays look easy. He can be a calming influence on what has at times been a panicky defence this season. Then there are the times he chooses the exact moment to visit a pitcher to settle the game down and give him time to breathe.
Besides, who is going to beat Tulo out for the opening day job at spring training of 2019? Maybe Loudres Gurriel Jr. Consider that, in 2017, Tulowitzki played 61 games before the ankle injury. In the other 231 Jays games in 2017-18 heading to Baltimore, a total of 11 other Jays have played shortstop — Aledmys Diaz, Ryan Goins, Gurriel, Richard Urena, Darwin Barney, Gio Urshela, Yangervis Solarte, Gift Ngoepe, Josh Donaldson, Russ Martin and Brandon Drury.
Sure, the Jays organization is deep in shortstop prospects, but are any of them going to be ready in seven months and be better than Tulowitzki? According to MLB Pipeline, eight shortstops are among the top 24 prospects in the organization — Bo Bichette (second), Kevin Smith (sixth), Jordan Groshans (eighth), Orelvis Martinez (13th), Logan Warmoth (17th), Santiago Espinal (23rd) and Leo Jimenez (24th).
Again, the most likely candidate to beat Tulowitzki out for the starting job is Gurriel, who lost his prospect status because of too many days in the majors this year. Diaz, who was presciently acquired from the Cardinals in the off-season to add depth in case Tulowitzki couldn’t answer the bell, is not a good enough defender to be counted upon as the future starter at the most important infield position.
Tulo is a stud in career defensive WAR, although it must be pointed out his best days are behind him. The smoothfielding shortstop ranks 81st in major-league history for WAR at all defensive positions. His 16.9 defensive WAR (as per Baseball Reference) ranks sixth among active players, second at shortstop to Andrelton Simmons of the Angels.
There is no downside to letting, in fact encouraging, Tulowitzki to come to training camp next February to realistically compete for the job. It’s never a good thing to hand a starting job to a young player. I have seen that strategy crash and burn through the years more often than be successful.
The reality is that Tulowitzki has played 140-plus games in a season just three times in his career. He has missed 30-plus games due to injury for six seasons in a row. But if he is healthy and has a good enough spring to win the job, the Jays have two legitimate options, neither of which is bad.
He can start the season as the Jays shortstop and see how far and how well he can carry the position. If he is injured or fails, you have Gurriel or Diaz ready to assume the position. Or he can impress another team in the spring to the point that, if the Jays are willing to eat a large chunk of remaining con- tract (which they are), they can obtain a serviceable prospect and save some money.
The situation is similar to Derek Jeter’s final days with the Yankees — minus about 1,800 hits. Jeter was always going to be the Bombers shortstop. As long as he was in pinstripes, a position change was out of the question.
When Alex Rodriguez arrived from Texas, A-Rod was the better shortstop but moved to third base.
Tulo is not Jeter, but fans and media would treat Tulowitzki with more respect if it were not for the ridiculous amount of money still owed to a player who has had trouble staying on the field. Take money out of the equation and all of the above suggestions of what should happen in 2019 fall into place.
When Tulowitzki is healthy and playing, he is a better allaround shortstop than anyone the Jays have right now, at least for the first half of 2019. It will be a different story in 2020 with Gurriel and Bichette on the immediate horizon. The Jays in 2018 are on pace to win 75 games. They have won more games than nine other majorleague teams and there doesn’t seem to be as much gnashing of teeth about blowing it up from those fan bases.
To suggest that a turnaround to 85-plus wins next year is impossible is a case of not studying history. Dozens of teams have gone from 75 or fewer wins to 90-plus. Certainly at the moment it seems unlikely for the Jays. It seems management is more concerned about stadium upgrades than roster upgrades, but one never knows what can happen with the addition of an immediate impact player like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and the continued development of starting pitching.
With $38 million in guaranteed salary on the line, there is little likelihood that Tulowitzki will actually pack his bags and go home if he doesn’t earn the starting shortstop’s role. The players’ union would about have a heart attack.