Mexico, Canada forced into isolationist roles
After this momentous week in North American relations, it may be a long time before we see a revival of those old “Three Amigos” summits.
You may remember them. In happier times, the prime minister of Canada would get together with the presidents of the United States and Mexico to have their photos taken together and talk about how to make North America a more co-operative place.
The last one was held in Canada in the summer of 2016. No “Three Amigos” summit has been held since Donald Trump became president later that year. And chances of a reunion seem even more remote today, especially if this week has helped set a new standard in the every-nation-for-itself approach to continental relations. Trump isn’t just averse to summits, he’s clearly not big on the whole idea of multilateralism.
“When Canada didn’t show up (at session in Vietnam last year), Mexico kind of had to cover.” SARAH GOLDFEDER FORMER U.S. DIPLOMAT
The president didn’t enjoy himself at the G7 Summit in Charlevoix, Quebec last June — to put it mildly — and no matter what else has happened this week, he has turned what should have been multilateral trade negotiations into two bilateral sets of talks.
So it’s not just that Trump is an isolationist, he’s turning his North American partners into isolationists, too.
“At least Canada knows how I feel,” is destined to become an important marker in Canada’s relationship with Trump’s America in the coming months and years. Trump uttered those remarks in the context of his off-the-record boasts of no compromise with Canada in this week’s trade negotiations. But we also know now how Trump feels about overall North American co-operation, and the answer is, “not much.”
Even before Trump’s controversial remarks exploded into the public on Friday (courtesy of Star reporter Daniel Dale,) the president had forced Mexico and Canada into isolated corners.
Although the two countries had long been saying they wouldn’t toss each other under the bus and go it alone with the United States in NAFTA negotiations, that’s essentially what happened when Trump unveiled his U.S.-Mexico deal on Monday.
And make no mistake, Canada noticed.
Neither Mexico nor Canada was dwelling on that reality this week, but it’s said that Foreign Affairs Minister Chrystia Freeland did let Mexican government officials know that their go-it-alone approach had been noted when she arrived in Washington this week to get caught up on what Canada had missed.
Several trade experts have been saying this week that, when all this current drama is over, Canada-Mexico relations are going to need some repairs.
Sarah Goldfeder, a principal with the Earnscliffe Strategy Group in Ottawa, is a former U.S. diplomat who has worked for two American ambassadors to Canada and also in Mexico as a foreign service officer.
She’s been keeping a close eye on how the North American trade relationship has been evolving and says that things between Canada and Mexico were already somewhat shaky before this week.
Last year’s negotiations over the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade arrangement, for instance, saw some tension between Mexico and Canada when Prime Minister Justin Trudeau didn’t show up at a negotiating session in Vietnam. “When Canada didn’t show up, Mexico kind of had to cover,” Goldfeder said. Nor has Canada appreciated the depth or complexity of Mexico’s economic ties to the U.S., she said. “These are all strains on the relationship.”
Peter Clark, an international trade strategist who has been writing commentary in iPolitics during the ongoing negotiations, said some of the Canada-Mexico tension over this week’s developments may dis- sipate when the new Mexican government takes over in December.
Trump’s deal with Mexico, such as it is, was made with the outgoing regime and Canada could just decide to see the goit-alone decision as an ill-considered move of Enrigue Pena Nieto’s government on the way out.
Still, no matter how much Canada tried to minimize the impact of the bilateral U.S.Mexico negotiations, and how much it insisted this country was in the loop, as Clark says, “it’s not like we knew” what was going on, right up to the last minute.
Canadian officials, speaking off the record, insist that nego- tiations with the United States ended Friday on a good note, despite the comments from Trump, and that no one in Trudeau’s government is interested in picking a fight with Mexico over how everything unfolded this week.
But even if Trump doesn’t end up getting everything that the U.S. wants in whatever new trade deal is reached, he has succeeded in making Canada and Mexico fall into his isolationist, anti-multilateral way of looking at trade relations.
And as a bonus, Trump won’t likely be asked to go to any Three Amigos summit anytime soon.