Notley plays ‘one of the oldest cards in politics’
Alberta premier blames Ottawa for pipeline woes
CALGARY— The Alberta NDP’s political future is looking significantly bleaker after a court decision Thursday that put the Trans Mountain pipeline on hold.
The full extent of political fallout from the Federal Court of Appeal’s decision Thursday has yet to be seen, but with the NDP and Premier Rachel Notley facing a looming fight for re-election before the end of May next year, experts agree that delays to the pipeline are the last thing the party needs.
“This was one of the worst days, if not the worst day in office for the (Alberta) New Democrats,” said University of Calgary political science professor David Stewart.
Political fortunes in Alberta are often tied to the energy industry, added Mount Royal University policy studies professor Lori Williams. And as Notley is trying to position her party as a driver of the province’s ongoing economic recovery, she’s faced with a situation where she “doesn’t have the levers” to change her current situation other than increasing pressure on other groups.
That’s an ongoing challenge with the pipeline file, Williams said. While Alberta has been pushing for the Trans Mountain to be built, decisions have often been in the courts’ or federal government’s hands.
In a speech Thursday evening, Notley also made a surprising move, vowing that Alberta will pull out of Canada’s national climate plan “until the federal government gets its act together.”
Stewart said that puts an ageold Alberta political tradition into play.
“It sets the stage for a defence that in the absence of a pipeline in the next election Notley will have to make, which is to play one of the oldest cards in Alberta politics: western alienation. Blame the federal government.”
Notley’s move to distance herself from Ottawa could offer leverage in a situation where she’s left with limited options.
Stewart said that considering where things stand now, simply getting the approvals for the pipeline lined up would be a big win that could bolster the NDP — actually getting construction on the pipeline underway is no longer as crucial to its political positioning.
“I wouldn’t have thought earlier this week that approvals would be enough. But now approvals would look like a major step forward,” he said.
“Carbon tax plus no pipeline is a clear indication of failure on a major government priority.”