A MIGHTY RIGHT
Europe’s scorching summer is finally cooling down, but the angry passions driving its politics are not. Every week now, the menacing drumbeats of the continent’s resurgent far-right forces are getting louder.
In the east German city of Chemnitz this week, a seething mob of more than 5,000 anti-immigrant protesters, including neo-Nazis, clashed for two nights with counter-demonstrators shouting “Nazis out,” leaving several people injured.
In Milan on Tuesday, leaders of the extreme-right governments of Italy and Hungary together called on Europe to send all illegal refugees back to Africa and vowed to make next May’s European parliamentary elections a defining battle over immigration.
And next weekend in Sweden, in a country known the world over as a beacon of liberal values, a radical-right political party founded by neo-Nazis is expected to obtain record support in that country’s election.
That certainly wasn’t where the trajectory of Europe’s 21st-century journey was supposed to lead.
A year ago, there was optimism that the extremist ghosts of Europe’s bloody past were locked in a vault forever. In Britain, there were the first signs of revolt against the folly of Brexit. In France, the victory of Emmanuel Macron over the extremist National Front was decisive. And in Germany, Angela Merkel appeared headed to an easy victory in last September’s election.
But then it turned ugly. Quite suddenly, the floor collapsed beneath the moderate parties supporting the liberal democratic order, and Europe’s far-right parties — emboldened by the warm embrace of America’s Donald Trump and his comrade-in-arms, Russia’s Vladimir Putin — dramatically broke through.
In September, Merkel’s party obtained its worst result in 70 years and Germany’s far-right party became the largest opposition party. In October, an anti-immigrant politician became prime minister in the Czech Republic. In December, an extreme right-wing party joined the government in Austria and now dominates it. And last March and April, the far-right forces in Italy and Hungary made major gains in their elections.
So what does this all mean? Where is Europe heading?
Each country’s story is unique, and complex, but there are new patterns emerging.
When the far right started gaining popularity in Europe, it was widely believed that the rise of right-wing populism was largely a response to the economic distress caused by the massive 2008 recession. Once this distress receded — or so it was thought — so would the populist threat.
But that hasn’t happened. Europe’s economy has largely rebounded, and unemployment has fallen in most areas. Even with Muslim refugees — the flashpoint of so many protests — the trends are down. According to the United Nations, fewer than 40,000 migrants have arrived in Europe by sea this year. That is compared to more than a million in 2015.
Yet in elections this year in Italy (with 77 per cent fewer migrants than last year) and in Hungary (with virtually no Muslim refugees), the main campaign issue of the far-right parties was the threat of being overrun by Muslims.
When in power, far-right governments in Europe have shown little appetite to deal with economic challenges. But now, with the economy relatively strong in most countries, they don’t have to. Instead, they are able to push “identity” issues and stoke fears of foreigners running wild even when the facts don’t bear that out.
Cynical and dishonest? Yes, but effective with many voters — for the time being.
All signs suggest that Europe’s far-right nationalist parties are on the offensive. They clearly have the momentum. They know the enormous power of a simple tribal message that stresses “identity” and “country” over a chaotic world of immigrants and globalization.
This means that, in response, the liberal forces must dramatically sharpen their game.
They have only begun to come up with effective strategies to deal with the genuine crisis of inequality and unfairness created by the economic policies of the past. As far-right leaders flounder when actually governing, this presents a crucial opportunity for moderate parties.
But even more important, they need to grab back the notion of “nation” from the nationalists. It will be a “long, hard struggle,” as British historian Timothy Garton Ash wrote in The Guardian, but the challenge is clear:
“Liberal Europe has to find ways of addressing those deep emotional needs for community and identity that populists exploit. As you can see in every World Cup football crowd, national identity remains an incomparable source of passion and belonging.”
It can be done. Until recently in the United States, the Republican Party seemed to have a monopoly among voters on issues of “flag” and “country,” but that has changed. Virtually overnight, the disastrous Trump presidency has given Democrats an opening.
For Europe’s far-right threat to be confronted, the continent’s moderate forces desperately need to find a similar opening.
“Liberal Europe has to find ways of addressing those deep emotional needs for community and identity that populists exploit.” TIMOTHY GARTON ASH BRITISH HISTORIAN