Pitching disappointed, for starters
Blue Jays put the rot in rotation with a group that looked to be elite
There has been much fingerpointing by observers, fans and within team management to identify the biggest reasons why the 2018 Jays failed so dramatically. Without a doubt, the key to the collapse for a team that may not win 70 games was an underachieving starting rotation — the group of five that, at the start of the year, included J.A. Happ, Marcus Stroman, Marco Estrada, Aaron Sanchez and Jaime Garcia.
Even in the quietest moments back at spring training, after Garcia had signed as a $10-million (U.S.) free agent to become the Jays’ fifth starter, there was serious debate among veteran media as to where in the AL East the Jays’ rotation should be ranked. Informed opinions (or so we thought) had the Jays, Red Sox and Yankees 1-2-3 in various arguable orders. Wow! How misguided was that logic?
The Jays quintet, with 16 games remaining and with only Estrada and Sanchez left standing, has combined to post a 2738 record with a 5.13 ERA in 96 starts, averaging just 51⁄ innings per outing.
It was not unreasonable to expect much better. In their best individual seasons — Estrada and Garcia in 2015, Happ and Sanchez in 2016, Stroman in 2017 — the fivesome combined for a 71-29 record, with 8982⁄ innings in 142 starts.
Happ was the only one to meet expectations this year. And because the original five have made just 96 starts, another nine pitchers have been forced to make the 49 other starts … and counting. Not including Thursday’s series finale at Fenway, with Sam Gaviglio on the mound, the nine sub starters had combined for an 8-21 record with a 5.38 ERA in 241 innings.
An unintended benefit of the rotation’s disappointing performance is the Jays have had a chance to see prospects like Ryan Borucki, Thomas Pannone, Sean Reid-Foley and Gaviglio, all of whom are making a pitch to be part of the Jays’ future. But this column is about 2018 and this year’s disappointment. Here is a summary of the original starting five. J.A. Happ (10-6, 4.18 ERA, 20 starts): The veteran left-hander was the best Jays player in the first half and a first-time allstar, picking up the save for the AL in a career highlight moment. But the catch-22 for the Jays is that as the best pitcher on the team, he was the only one with any value to a contender. He was dealt at the deadline to the Yankees. The pieces that came back, outfielder Billy McKinney and utilityman Brandon Drury, are part of the Jays’ rebuild. Marco Estrada (7-11, 5.32 ERA, 25 starts): Nobody knows the pain and discomfort that Estrada has been in for many of his starts. But that does not take away from the bottom line that, on either side of his 26 days on the disabled list for a glute strain, he has 10 starts of five innings or fewer, with a 10.27 ERA in 372⁄ innings. When he was bad, he was very bad. After signing a one-year deal last summer, Estrada he was expected to be the stabilizing force in mid-rotation. Aaron Sanchez (4-6, 4.90 ERA, 19 starts): The former AL ERA champion is one of the more encouraging late-season stories with the Jays. After a devastating injury — he lost a battle with a suitcase, suffered a finger contusion and missed 64 days — Sanchez has been regularly reaching the 90s in his pitch counts while trying to regain the command of his secondary pitches and get consistent movement on his two-seam fastball. So far he has answered questions positively. Marcus Stroman (4-9, 5.54 ERA, 19 starts): He was a breakout star at the World Baseball Classic last year, then went 13-9 with a 3.09 ERA with the Jays, so his 2018 qualifies as the rotation’s biggest disappointment. Stroman battled what was reported as shoulder fatigue early in the year, though it was diagnosed without an MRI, and lately has battled finger blisters. He has reluctantly been shut down for the season.
In hindsight maybe the Jays should have shut him down once they were officially out of contention, but the chip on Stroman’s shoulder pushed him to be the anti-Sanchez and show how tough he was by not missing any starts due to a pesky blister. Eventually, though, he could not continue. He will have a lot to prove next spring as he is expected to be at the top of the rotation with Sanchez. For now, they’re the bruise brothers. Jaime Garcia (3-6, 5.93 ERA, 13 starts): For fans who believe that management orchestrated this failed season so they could advance their plan for a rebuild, Garcia is Exhibit A against that argument. If that had been the plan, they would not have signed a veteran fifth starter for $10 million. Garcia seemed like a solid addition in February but, when the season began and the team needed him to step up, his control and command deserted him. He made early-season starts a clinic in blocking balls in the dirt for catchers Russ Martin and Luke Maile.
It’s possible the Jays could enter the 2019 season without any pitcher older than 30. If you take the 30-plus Kendrys Morales out of the equation — with his one game of emergency relief — there are currently four 30-plus hurlers on the roster. Two of them, Estrada and Tyler Clippard, will be free agents, while the oher two, Ryan Tepera and Jake Petricka, are relievers. Everyone else on the current roster is younger than 30. The rebuild has been given a head start.