The deeper the Jays’ farm system gets (hello, Cavan Biggio) the faster fans will see big-league results.
Milwaukee blueprint hints at what Shapiro hopes to pull off
There are 10 teams that qualify for the MLB post-season each year, but contrary to popular belief it’s not reserved for the franchises with the highest payrolls. Among the 13 lowestspending teams in 2018, five have been playoff contenders: the Braves (18th), Brewers (22nd), Phillies (23rd), A’s (28th) and Rays (30th).
The common thread is that those organizations have all boasted top farm systems for at least the past three years, and some even beyond. It was the case for the Royals before they lost and then finally won a World Series in 2015.
The Jays’ brass truly believes the franchise has built a sustainable farm system through shrewd drafting and trades that will allow them to rebuild on a short-term schedule — going with youngsters from within, supplemented by short-term free agents for two years and then, in 2021, filling holes around the diamond and rejoining the ranks of contenders.
“Some of these (prospects) are going to be a lot better than we think, and some are going to not be the players that we think they’re going to be,” Jays president Mark Shapiro said recently. “Someone’s going to come out of nowhere one year and shock us and surprise us, and be a far better player than we ever dreamed he could be. That’s the nature.
“So you need to have waves of talent coming and you need to have dozens of prospects — not two, three, five prospects. I wish I could give fans a frontrow seat to what I get to see and what I’m reading every day, and the reports I’m hearing from (player development execs) Gil (Kim) and from Ben (Cherington) and from (Eric Wedge) and from Jeff Ware. But there are some really good things happening.”
The best current example of a contender that built up resources for a couple of seasons via a top-ranked farm and then added veterans is the Brewers. They had already built a decent team with draft picks, international signings, minor-league trades and free agents before reaching out in 2018 and using assets from a top-tier farm system to secure outfielder Christian Yelich and also sign Lorenzo Cain as a free agent. At the deadlines they added Jonathan Schoop, Mike Moustakas, Curtis Granderson, Gio Gonzalez and others now battling the Cubs in the NL Central.
After the 2015 season, when GM Alex Anthopoulos traded away much of the depth at the upper levels of the system in order to reach the playoffs in consecutive years, Baseball America and MLB.com had Toronto’s farm ranked in the mid-20s among 30 teams. Three years later, after the July trade deadline, the Jays moved up to No. 3 or 4 on many websites, led by Vlad Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette but also supplemented by a slew of prospects at every level.
“When you see that concentration of talent and you start to see that talent backing up, and you start to see it at every level — not just one or two levels, not just five, six guys,” Shapiro began, “if you have the stomach and the toughness to stay that course and play that out, there’s a very exciting run of championship baseball that comes behind it. But you’ve got to stay strong. You’ve got to stay positive. You’ve got to believe in what you’re doing. You’ve got to do the best job possible to develop those players and ensure that as many as possible reach their potential.”
In development, the Jays’ farm system trails a step behind the Padres and Braves. While the Padres are still waiting for the big payoff, contending is not far away. They signed first baseman Eric Hosmer and shortstop Freddy Galvis in 2018 and both are expected to be there when the Padres reach the post-season. Their lineup has no player older than 28 and a rotation all at 27 or younger.
Shapiro insists there are specific win numbers that can be attached to MLB’s strongest systems down the line when the farm bears fruit.
“If you objectively go back and study the farm systems that are ranked in the top five and you look three or four years later, (it translates to) somewhere between six and nine wins (at the major-league level),” Shapiro said.
“So there’s two ways to look at it. You’re either collecting talent or you’re building a team. We want to build a team. We want to build a championship team. The best way to do that in the AL East is to develop the core of that talent. Not to say we won’t add to it at the right time, but to develop the core.”
Fans should get used to the youngsters at the Rogers Cen- tre until at least the second half of 2020. It’s an easier mantra for hard-core Jays fans to accept than those occasional fans who filled inventory at the Rogers Centre in 2015-16. Time will tell if the Jays — in Shapiro’s words — “have the stomach and the toughness to be patient.”