Ford’s motive is not likely pique

In the battle of Toronto, Doug Ford has won the first round. City council will be slashed roughly in half.

Now the real questions can be addressed: How much does it matter that Torontonians will elect only 25 councillors rather than 47? And why is the Ontario premier doing this?

The decision was effectively made Wednesday when three Ontario appeal court justices ruled that the Oct. 22 municipal election can go ahead in Toronto under terms set by Ford’s Progressive Conservative government.

Technically, the judges merely suspended an earlier lower-court ruling that labelled Ford’s plan to reduce the size of Toronto city council unconstitutional.

But they made it clear that they disagreed sharply with that earlier ruling, calling it “dubious” and wrong in law, which is the position the Ford government took.

The justices pointed out that while Ford’s decision to slash the size of city council in the midst of a municipal election campaign might be unfair, it wasn’t necessarily unconstitutional.

That’s true. Under the Constitution, provincial governments have virtual carte blanche to do as they wish with municipalities, no matter what the inhabitants think.

In 1997, a previous PC government under Mike Harris rammed through the amalgamation of what were then six separate Toronto boroughs. It did so in spite of intense opposition from residents.

Harris created that so-called megacity in order to make it easier to download costly social programs on Toronto. What’s not clear yet is Ford’s motive for cutting the size of Toronto council.

The premier says he wants to save money and make council less dysfunctional. But if the past is any indication, neither of these aims will be met.

The megacity reforms, for instance, were billed as money-savers. But they ended up costing more. They also produced a sharply divided council that was no more functional than its predecessors. What then is Ford up to? And why? The common explanation is pique. During his time on Toronto council, Ford was in constant battle with its left wing. Now, some argue, he’s getting back at old foes.

One problem with this theory is that many of the leftish councillors that Ford attacks, such as Joe Cressy, Mike Layton and Gord Perks, are likely to win seats on the new smaller council.

Another is that, while he might bluster, Ford is too shrewd a politician to let himself be ruled by pique. He must have another motive.

The most logical one is that he has plans for Toronto and believes that a smaller council dominated by suburban conservatives will be more amenable to them.

We know a few things about those plans. We know that Ford wants the province to take over responsibility for building and maintaining Toronto’s subway system. But we don’t know how he would pay for this.

In exchange for taking on subway construction, would a Ford government once again download costly social expenditures onto the city? Would he focus new subway construction on outer suburbs such as Pickering rather than on projects Toronto wants, such as a downtown relief line?

We also know that Ford has grandiose plans for the Toronto waterfront, including Ontario Place. These plans have, at various times, included a giant ferris wheel, a megamall, a casino and — of course — plenty of commercial and condo development.

Now that he’s premier, he’s in a better position to deliver. A more malleable Toronto council would be an asset here.

But would a smaller council necessarily be more Ford-friendly? That depends on who is elected. Toronto’s so-called progressives focus on the downtown ridings. But as the Star’s May Warren has reported, these are fast becoming enclaves of the well-to-do.

If the left has any future in Toronto, it lies with lower-income earners who, increasingly, populate the suburbs.

Currently, these are the voters who provide the base for right populists like Ford. But it doesn’t have to be that way. The premier’s decision to downsize Toronto council could yet backfire.

Thomas Walkom is a Toronto-based columnist covering politics. Follow him on Twitter: @tomwalkom