Right-wing populism rising

Score one more victory for right-wing populism. The People’s Alliance of New Brunswick made a breakthrough in that province’s election Monday and could end up holding the balance of power in a hung legislature.

If you’ve never heard of the People’s Alliance, you’re not alone.

It was founded just eight years ago on a platform that runs the gamut from the familiar (tax breaks for small business) to the idiosyncratic (elimination of front-end licence plates on automobiles).

But the nub of the party’s appeal is its critique of the province’s language policies.

New Brunswick, which is about onethird francophone, is Canada’s only officially bilingual province.

This has never sat well with some parts of the province’s anglophone majority, in part because bilingual ability is needed in some public service jobs.

In 1991, the anti-bilingual Confederation of Regions party won eight seats in the New Brunswick legislature, but its victory was short-lived.

Historian David Frank, a professor emeritus at the University of New Brunswick, says the People’s Alliance is smarter and hipper than the old Confederation of Regions.

Alliance Leader Kris Austin is a former pastor who also spent some time in public relations.

He presents himself not as an opponent of bilingualism, but as a critic of what he calls the inefficient handling of language policies.

In particular, he would scrap the province’s official language commissioner, the requirement that paramedics be bilingual and the use of separate school buses for anglophone and francophone students.

Overall, he would veer to the Ontario model, which is to provide francophone services only in areas where numbers warrant.

This might sound reasonable. But, as Frank notes, in New Brunswick it also acts as a dog whistle to attract voters who are simply anti-French.

In Monday’s election, the People’s Alliance came from nowhere to win three of the province’s 49 ridings and place second in seven more.

David Coon’s Greens also did well, going from one to three seats.

But in terms of influence on whoever forms government, the numbers currently favour the Alliance.

So far, neither Liberal Leader Brian Gallant nor PC Leader Blaine Higgs has conceded.

Higgs argues that since his PCs won 22 seats — more than any other party — he should have first chance at forming government.

Gallant argues that since he is already premier, and even though his Liberals hold only 21 seats, he should have first chance.

The final decision, it seems, lies with Lt.-Gov. Jocelyne Roy Vienneau.

At press time Tuesday, there were conflicting accounts about what, if anything, she has decided.

Gallant said she had agreed his Liberals should be given the first shot. Higgs insisted that she hadn’t.

Certainly, the easiest way to cobble together a relatively stable legislature would be to let the largest party, the PCs, eventually form a government that was dependent in some form on either the Greens or the People’s Alliance.

For the PCs, the People’s Alliance would be a more natural fit than the Greens, who have replaced the almost moribund New Democrats as New Brunswick’s left-of-centre party.

But regardless of who forms government in New Brunswick, Monday’s election represents another feather in the cap for right populists.

In Quebec’s election campaign, the Coalition Avenir Québec has resurrected the province’s xenophobic debate over accommodating immigrants.

In Ontario, Premier Doug Ford has taken power on a promise to shrink government and stick it to those he calls the downtown elites. In the U.S., there is Donald Trump. In each case, there are reasons peculiar to the jurisdiction that help explain the rise of this or that right-populist politician.

But the fact that so many of these places are moving in the same direction can’t be a coincidence.

There is something going on here.

Thomas Walkom is a Toronto-based columnist covering politics. Follow him on Twitter: @tomwalkom