AT THE PLATE
2018 group led by two franchise players should provide off-season drama
Bryce Harper among the biggest stars available on free-agent market, but signing him will cost a bundle,
Major League Baseball’s most anticipated free agent class since 2000 has arrived — even if it’s not as potent as once imagined.
Still, a group led by a pair of franchise players should provide significant intrigue from the winter into the spring.
As the off-season begins in earnest, we take a look at the top free agents available. Rankings based on projected future performance and perceived market value:
1. Bryce Harper (26, OF, Nationals): We’ll give Harper the edge over Manny Machado by the slimmest of margins, largely due to intangibles. The lifetime deals these men can expect — a decade or longer in term, more than a quarter-billion dollars in value — are almost as much about marketability as production. Harper remains the game’s blue-chip endorser and among its most recognizable faces. Oh, and he’s also hit 184 home runs with a lifetime .900 OPS through his age 25 season.
2. Manny Machado (26, SS/3B, Dodgers): Three months younger than Harper, Machado benefits from playing on the left side of the infield and near-robotic production: He’s hit between 33 and 37 home runs while playing at least 156 games the past four seasons. No, Machado’s curious playoff behaviour shouldn’t affect his stock.
3. Patrick Corbin (29, LHP, Diamondbacks): He misses bats — 246 strikeouts in 200 innings — posted a reputable 3.15 ERA in a hitters’ park and has already professed his love for the Yankees. Yes, Corbin is going to get paid. He’s almost two years younger than Dallas Keuchel, the more-renowned free agent lefty on this market, and gave up two fewer hits per nine innings (7.3 to 9.3) as well.
4. Dallas Keuchel (31, LHP, Astros): Forget about “bullpenning” for a moment and realize such set-ups still require somebody to absorb 200 innings. Four years removed from his Cy Young Award season, Keuchel remains that man. While he gave up an AL-high 211 hits, Keuchel clocked 204 2/3 innings pitched and could enjoy a nice bump should he land in the NL. While his ERA rose to 3.74 from 2.90, his Fielding Independent Pitching dipped from 3.75 to 3.69. Still a safe bet.
5. Craig Kimbrel (30, RHP, Red Sox): Push out of your mind an October filled with tipped pitches and yanked sliders and far too many white knuckles in New England. Kimbrel remains on a Hall of Fame path as a closer and struck out 96 batters in 62 1/3 innings last season. He may not be as versatile as other arms, but there remains plenty of value in locking down the ninth inning.
6. A.J. Pollock (31, OF, Diamondbacks): Health has been an enemy and age is no longer an ally, a tough spot for a player for which speed is important. Still, Pollock won’t hurt you in centre field and at least one team will dare to dream on his 2015 season (20 homers, 39 steals, .367 OBP) while realizing last season’s113-game campaign (21, 13, .316) may be his new normal.
7. Nathan Eovaldi (29, RHP, Red Sox): Not often can a player meaningfully boost his stock in the post-season, but then again, few have had Octobers like Eovaldi. He started games, finished games, was deployed to get the highest-leverage outs — and maintained his 100-mph velocity north of 90 pitches.
8. Michael Brantley (31, LF, Indians): Just two years after shoulder surgery limited him to 11 games, Brantley enters free agency off consecutive all-star appearances and myriad signs he’s aging well. He produced a .364 OBP, while striking out just 60 times in 631 plate appearances. 9. Marwin Gonzalez (30, INF/OF, Astros): With only so many Harpers and Machados available, clubs that value a Dodgers-style platoon system will swoon for Gonzalez, a switch-hitter who saw time last season at first base, second base, and all three outfield spots. 10. Adam Ottavino (33, RHP, Rockies): The least-heralded member of Colorado’s bullpen gets to cash in. Ottavino boosted his strikeouts per nine innings to 13. Freed from Coors Field, Ottavino’s versatility as a bullpen weapon will be cherished. 11. Andrew McCutchen (32, OF, Yankees): Does character count in free agency? If so, McCutchen’s market soared in 2018 after endearing himself to a pair of veteran clubhouses in San Francisco and New York. If not, well, McCutchen remains one of the game’s most disciplined hitters, posting a .368 OBP and hitting 20 homers. 12. DJ LeMahieu (30, 2B, Rockies): Not every team fills his position with a full-time player these days, but LeMahieu should find a forever home after leading NL second basemen with 18 defensive runs saved. The 2016 batting champ is a good fit in a lot of places. 13. J.A. Happ (36, LHP, Yankees): Is age just a number? After going 7-0 with a 2.69 ERA in 11 starts after a trade from the Blue Jays to the Yankees, Happ may be the ultimate test of this concept. He offers predictability — a 3.90 ERA over12 seasons. 14. Josh Donaldson (33, 3B, Indians): The 2015 AL MVP with Toronto was limited to just 52 games and may be inclined to take a one-year contract to rebuild his value. But getting teams to gamble now, rather than try again at 34, may prove more lucrative. Donaldson’s career numbers — a .367 OBP, .874 OPS — may inspire a moderate bet for a team figuring his skills will age well. 15. Nelson Cruz (38, DH, Mariners): Safeco Field again could not contain Cruz, who slugged 37 home runs. Age and his DH-only status will limit the market.