Trump’s NAFTA could be upended by Democrats

White House sure it can corral votes for USMCA deal

U.S. President Donald Trump’s promise to quickly pass a revamped North American Free Trade Agreement has been upended by the midterm elections, with Democrats who will soon control the House vowing to withhold their support to extract greater protections for American workers.

Administration officials remain confident they will corral the votes for the new United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, which Trump speedily negotiated in September to claim a big win on one of his signature issues before the November elections.

While White House officials considered pushing the revised deal through the coming lame-duck session, they did not want to risk a backlash from lawmakers in both parties.

Democrats, emboldened by their midterm win and eager to outshine Trump as defenders of the American worker, are unlikely to sign off on any deal that

does not include significant changes that labour leaders and newly elected progressives are demanding.

That could involve reopening negotiations with Mexico, although U.S. and Mexican negotiators have both publicly ruled out that possibility.

“Trump made it seem like this was a done deal, but there is a long, long way to go,” said Rep. Bill Pascrell, who is likely to be named chair of the House Ways and Means Subcommittee on Trade.

The House will consider the agreement first under the Con- stitution’s provision mandating that revenue bills originate in the lower chamber. A vote could take up to nine months or longer, according to senior administration officials.

House Democrats are particularly concerned about a provision that would require at least 30 per cent of the labour used to build each car in Mexico to be completed by workers earning at least $16 an hour.

That amount will rise to 40 per cent by 2023, but the $16 wage is not indexed to inflation, meaning the increase will be diluted over time as prices rise.

The text of the agreement also requires Mexico to make it easi- er for workers to join unions.

All of these actions were intended to make it less likely that automakers and other manufacturers would shift American jobs south for cheaper labour. But Democrats and their allies in manufacturing unions — who have remained neutral on the proposed pact — maintain that the new requirements, while an improvement on the original NAFTA, do not go far enough. They are demanding more specifics about how the deal will be enforced and raising questions about whether the $16-an-hour benchmark for Mexican workers is high enough to stanch the flow of American jobs to Mexico.

“Without enforcement you don’t have anything. Without it, you are, shall we say, just rebranding NAFTA,” Rep. Nancy Pelosi said last week.

“Right now, it is a work in progress,” said Pelosi, a former speaker who is expected to reclaim that post. “Mexico has to pass a law about labour rights in Mexico, so that has not happened yet and that is a predicate of this agreement. Most important of all are the enforcement provisions in terms of labour and the environment. Enforcement, enforcement, enforcement.”