No. They are now free to rebuild the party
Dear Liberals: It’s for your own good.
A contentious Ontario election was fought and a long-in-the-tooth government was replaced with a new party — one that promised to listen to the people and put the middle class first.
The new premier had been written off, challenged by members of his own party and left for dead, but had finally come through with a huge majority.
The third party in the legislature had fought a disastrous campaign, falling one seat short of the required number of seats for official party status.
And the new premier was being attacked as a bloodthirsty hyper partisan, criticized for not showing mercy for his main political opponent by granting the perks that come with party status — research funding, recognition in the legislature and the ability to ask a significant number of questions to hold government to account.
The year was 2003. The new premier was Ontario Liberal leader Dalton McGuinty Jr. That troubled third party was the NDP.
This was the second time during my career in Ontario politics that this issue had come up.
In 1999, then-Premier Mike Harris — reelected with a majority government — faced a similar situation to the one McGuinty did years later. The NDP had fallen three seats short of the threshold for official party status at the time (12) and Harris made a different decision. He changed the standing orders of the legislature to make eight the new threshold, giving the NDP all the benefits of being a recognized party.
You might be wondering: why did Harris help the NDP and McGuinty did not? The answer: altruism. Just kidding. It was selfish political advantage.
The NDP is the sworn enemy of the Liberals and is an indirect strategic partner of the Tories in many jurisdictions. When the NDP does well, the Tories generally have a better chance of winning. So Harris helped the NDP, and McGuinty tried to put them down for good.
Each did what was in his own political interest.
What does this have to do with 2018? Ford faced the same situation. His bitter rival was vanquished. He made the same decision as McGuinty.
He chose not to move the yardsticks to help his main competition, reasoning that because the size of the legislature increased, it is even more difficult to justify lowering the threshold for party status.
But then he did something interesting: he announced that party status would require 10 per cent of the seats of the legislature moving forward, thereby raising the threshold to 12 seats.
The Liberals are mad. Sure it’s in Ford’s interest to do what he did, but I see two main benefits.
First, the politics will be taken out future decisions as premiers will rely on mathematics, rather than their own political calculus.
Second, this gives the Liberal party a clean slate and the ability to rebuild. Although I’m sure it wasn’t Premier Ford’s prime motivation, his decision gives the Liberals the opportunity to change their culture as soon as possible rather than waiting for a byelection to try to inch their way back.
The new reality also takes pressure off former premier and current MPP Kathleen Wynne, a historically unpopular leader.
If she leaves and the Liberals lose the byelection, with the previous party-status threshold, the Liberals would have found themselves two seats away. They would be stuck.
No more. Ms. Wynne can leave if she chooses and get out of the way for a full party rebuild. No need for awkward conversations. They can just get on with it.
A political party needs three things to succeed: money, ideas and inspiring leadership. A couple hundred thousand dollars in research assistants and some question period time won’t do it for the Liberals.
They should spend less time worrying about party status and rebuild the party from scratch — starting by relearning how to raise money and get back in touch with the voters who delivered a historic rejection.
The voters delivered a stinging rebuke that even interim leader John Fraser admitted was due. Best to put your head down and rebuild with dignity.