You-know-who is Trudeau’s not-so-secret weapon
Unofficially, the 2019 federal election campaign has begun. The formal kickoff is Finance Minister Bill Morneau’s fall economic statement, due to be delivered Wednesday.
Morneau will say the economy is doing well. In many ways it is. Unemployment is down. Inflation remains low. Wages are not keeping pace, but at least more people are working.
If the results of next October’s election depend solely on pocket-book issues, then Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s governing Liberals are well-positioned to win.
Indeed, the Nanos Research tracking poll has the Liberals in first place with 39 per cent of popular support, while Andrew Scheer’s Tories lag 10 percentage points behind. This in itself does not mean much. Polls can change dramatically in a year.
But it does indicate that opposition attacks on the Liberals have yet to find traction.
Most voters don’t seem to care about the issues that so often consume official Ottawa — such as what Trudeau wore on his trip to India or where he spent his Christmas holidays.
Those who already dismiss the prime minister as a vain and elitist popinjay have their opinions confirmed. But others appear to have tuned out.
The virtual disappearance of the New Democratic Party under leader Jagmeet Singh has been an extraordinary stroke of luck for the Liberals. Trudeau’s party won in 2015 largely thanks to the near collapse of the NDP. History may repeat itself.
But the Liberals’ real not-so-secret weapon is Doug Ford.
In the morality play that is Canadian politics, the Ontario Conservative premier can easily be portrayed by leftliberals as a black-hatted villain. He is big, brash and unapologetic.
In 2015, the Liberals successfully typecast then-Conservative leader Stephen Harper as a malevolent genius — a kind of Lex Luthor to Trudeau’s Clark Kent.
They are having less luck with Harper’s successor, Scheer. With his easy smile and dimpled cheeks, Scheer does not easily fit the supervillain stereotype. So the Liberals tried something else.
First, they tried to define Scheer as a puppet of Harper who, in their storyline, was still the hidden mastermind behind Canadian conservativism.
However, this was a difficult narrative to credibly maintain.
Luckily for the Liberals, the appearance of Ford on the scene has made it unnecessary.
Ford is the left-liberal’s nightmare. He opposes carbon pricing measures to deal with climate change; he opposes employment standards aimed at alleviating precarious work.
From his time at Toronto city hall, he has a reputation as a blowhard and bully. And while he does not espouse the protectionist policies of Donald Trump, he looks and acts like the U.S. president.
Ford handily defeated Kathleen Wynne’s provincial Liberals in this year’s Ontario election. But the federal Liberals are betting that this was a one-off event spurred not by love of Ford, but by Wynne’s personal unpopularity.
In fact, by polarizing the electorate, Ford may well make it easier for Trudeau in Ontario.
Ontario NDP supporters deserted their party in droves in 2015, in order to vote Liberal and defeat the Harper Conservatives. They may do so again to ensure that Fordism doesn’t gain a hold nationally.
In theory, Ford’s rock-hard opposition to carbon taxes should aid the Scheer Tories in Ontario. No one likes paying taxes, even for a good cause. But the sly Trudeau Liberals have two advantages here.
First their proposed tax, while too low to do any substantive good, is just high enough to assuage Canadian guilt and allow voters to think they are making a sacrifice for the environment.
Second, the Liberals are proposing to rebate this new carbon tax back to Ontario voters via a formula that will miraculously leave the average person financially better off.
They know that Ford will oppose them root and branch. Right now at least, they welcome the battle.
In theory, Doug Ford’s rock-hard opposition to carbon taxes should aid the Scheer Tories in Ontario