Shift to electric car is well underway

Experts say automakers like GM looking toward ‘vehicle of the future’

When General Motors cited plans to pivot toward electric and autonomous vehicle production as a key reason it had decided to mothball its Oshawa assembly plant, the company was talking about a future that many Canadians didn’t recognize.

But experts say the auto industry’s seismic shift away from the traditional internal combustion engine is already well underway.

“Pretty much every manufacturer’s making some decision and financial commitment to what the vehicle of the future is going to look like,” said David Adams, president and CEO of Global Automakers of Canada, an umbrella industry association that represents BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Nissan, Porsche and Volkswagen.

“Our members, all of them look at … decarbonized transportation as what the future is going to be.”

In a news release Monday, GM said it would cease current operations in Oshawa, as well as four plants in the U.S., by the end of 2019.

The company said the decision would save it $6 billion, and enable it to double investment in its electric and autonomous vehicle programs in the next two years.

According to Adams, full automation of vehicles is likely still “decades away.”

But electric vehicles — either battery electric or plug-in hybrids — make up a small but rapidly growing share of the market. As of December 2017, 1.4 per cent of all vehicles sold in Canada were electric, according to FleetCarma, a technology consultant firm, and just under 50,000 of the vehicles were on Canada’s roads.

However, the number of electric vehicles sold last year increased 68 per cent compared with the year before. The18,560 plug-in vehicles that drivers bought in 2017 represented a fivefold increase compared with sales in 2013.

The GM-made Chevrolet Volt, aplug-in hybrid, was the hottest seller in Canada last year, followed by the Chevrolet Bolt, a battery electric vehicle. GM announced this week it would discontinue the Volt as the company prioritizes battery electric vehicles.

In the U.S., nearly 30,000 electric vehicles were sold in July alone, according to industry site InsideEVs.com. That made up more than 2 per cent of automobiles sold that month, nearly double the market share from July 2017.

According to Ryan M. KatzRosene, an associate professor at the University of Ottawa and the president of the Environmental Studies Association of Canada, there is a mix of factors behind the growth of the electric vehicle market, including consumers who are concerned about the effects of climate change and are “voting with their dollars.”

But he said the single most important driver in the shift is government regulations.

Canada and the U.S. have both passed legislation mandating significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions from passenger vehicles by 2025.

Astudy released in September by the International Council on Clean Transportation found that as the technology becomes cheaper, for some companies the most cost-effective way to meet the targets could be switching to electric-powered vehicles.