Security of MBS as Saudi crown prince now uncertain

The Saudi prince is not out of the woods.

Despite support from U.S. President Donald Trump, the future of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman (MBS) continues to hang in the balance. It does not appears as secure as it did before Oct. 2, the day journalist Jamal Khashoggi was murdered inside the Saudi consulate in Istanbul.

For MBS to survive, support from Trump remains the key. Yet the tide in Washington is turning against him. In a leaked report last week, the Central Intelligence Agency had concluded MBS ordered the murder of Khashoggi.

Trump continues to deny the report. Trump told reporters in Florida: “No no, they (the CIA) didn’t conclude (that). I’m sorry. No, they didn’t conclude. They did not come to a conclusion. They have feelings (in) certain ways. I have the report … they have not concluded, I don’t know if anyone’s going to be able to conclude the crown prince did it.”

Yet anti-MBS sentiments continue to grow in Washington. Already a bipartisan group of senators has introduced legislation seeking to punish Saudi Arabia over the Khashoggi murder and the ongoing war in Yemen.

Sen. Mike Lee, a Republican, has called on Congress to take action against MBS. In a TV program on NBC he categorically said he disagreed with Trump’s al- legations that the CIA did not implicate MBS for the killing. “It is inconsistent with the intelligence I’ve seen,” Lee said.

Democratic Rep. Adam Schiff has accused Trump of not telling the truth on the issue. Democratic Senator Jack Reed asserted the CIA has concluded the “prince was directly involved in the assassination.”

Republican Bob Corker and Democrat Bob Menendez, in a letter to Trump, have asked him to determine if MBS was responsible for Khashoggi’s murder. Corker is the chairman and Menendez the ranking member of the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

Republican Sen. Lindsay Graham told journalist Jonathan Swan if the CIA confirms to him that it believes MBS ordered the murder of Khashoggi, he will push to have MBS sanctioned. Washington has already moved to sanction 17 Saudi nationals believed to be involved in Khashoggi’s murder, while the Saudi state prosecutor has sought the death penalty for five people for carrying out the murder.

Within the Saudi royal family, was well, not everything seems in order and in control for the beleaguered prince. His moves to concentrate power are beginning to haunt him.

A Reuters report quoting sources said some members of Saudi Arabia’s ruling family were agitating to prevent the crown prince from becoming king. Rather, they are discussing the possibility with other family members that after the king’s death, Prince Ahmed bin Abdulaziz could take the throne. King Salman’s only surviving full brother would have the support of family members, the security apparatus and some Western powers, one of the Saudi sources said.

Senior U.S. officials have indicated to Saudi advisers, the report said, that they would support Prince Ahmed.

In late October, Prince Ahmed, who had been fearful of returning to the kingdom because of the public comments he made against King Salman and MBS, returned home, reportedly under safety guarantees from major Western powers. He had been living in London.

On arrival, he was welcomed by senior royals, including MBS. Yet, Prince Ahmed avoided any public handshake with MBS.

Soon after his arrival, Prince Khalid bin Talal, a half-brother of Prince AlWaleed bin Talal, was released from prison.

Although still to be confirmed, there were reports in social media that one of the imprisoned sons of the late King Abdullah was also released. Speculation is rife; all this was the result of Prince Ahmad’s return and his behind-thescene efforts as he tried to heal rifts within the Al-Saud family.

King Salman is under growing pressure, also from within the family, to relieve MBS from the position of the crown prince, or at least take away some of his powers. The king is reluctant — at least for now.

When he visited Al-Qassim in the kingdom’s conservative hinterland, he was accompanied by MBS. This was a clear indication the King wanted MBS to survive.

Yet all is not well within the extended Al-Saud family.

Heads will have to roll. Whether the head of the crown prince is among them is still to be seen.

But this outcome is no longer improbable.