Cost of irregular migration likely to spike
Price per asylum seeker may jump $2,000 — and total hasn’t been budgeted
OTTAWA— A growing backlog of refugee claims risks turning a recent spike in irregular migration into a significant annual bill for both Ontario and Canada, a new report suggests.
An analysis by the Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO) released Thursday projected the cost associated with irregular migration — people crossing the Canada-U. S. border outside border checkpoints — is projected to rise over the coming years.
The increased costs are largely driven by longer wait times for migrants to have their asylum claims resolved, the PBO said. The longer an asylum claim takes, the longer asylum claimants depend on federal and provincial assistance.
“Our estimates suggest (the Liberal government has) not budgeted enough, which will result in an increased backlog at the Immigration and Refugee Board … (the funding) falls short significantly,” said newly appointed parliamentary budget officer Yves Giroux. “Increasing the backlog means individuals have to stay in limbo for a number of years … The longer they are in limbo, the longer they are benefitting from the interim federal health program, and that drives up the cost.”
The PBO estimated the “per migrant cost” to the immigration and health-care systems while an asylum waits for their claim to be processed at $14,321.
If the number of asylum seekers remains roughly constant, that cost is expected to rise to $15,483 in 2018-19 and $16,666 per person in 2019-20.
That represents a total cost of about $340 million, spread out over a number of years, for the cohort that attempted the crossing in 2017-18, rising to $396 million for the 2019-20 cohort. The price tag does not include costs borne by municipal and provincial governments, such as shelter and social services.
There’s a big asterisk on those future dollar figures, however, because the federal government can’t predict how many people will attempt to cross illegally in the future. The data available for 2018 suggests that the total numbers will come in lower than the year before.
Canada has both domestic and international obligations to give refugee claimants, even those who enter the country illegally, a fair hearing. But the issue of irregular migration has been making headlines since 2017, when the country saw a spike in irregular migration attempts at the Canada-U. S. border, with the vast majority crossing into Quebec. Between January 2017 and last month, almost 38,000 people have attempted that crossing.
The Liberal government’s handling of the situation has been sharply criticized by the federal Conservative opposi- tion, as well as Premier Doug Ford’s government at Queen’s Park, which estimate the total cost to the city of Toronto and Ontario for supporting refugee claimants to be $200 million a year.
The PBO said Thursday that estimate seems reasonable.
“Since day one we have challenged the federal government to pay us $200 million in compensation,” said Lisa MacLeod, ministor of children, community and social services, at Queen’s Park Thursday.
“We have indicated to the federal government that 40 per cent of Toronto’s shelter capacity is being used by refugees and it has put a strain financially but also in their shelter capacity … They actually suggested that we were lying about the shelter costs in Toronto.”
An assessment released by the city of Toronto Thursday confirmed that 40 per cent of people staying in city-administered shelters are asylum claimants.
In Ottawa, the federal Conservatives have called on the auditor general to review the Liberal government’s handling of the irregular border crossings.
“When will the prime minister own up to the fact that we have a big problem at our border and when will he fix it?” asked Conservative house leader Candice Bergen during question period.