The real cost of Brexit

The following is an excerpt from an editorial in the Guardian:

It is hard to pinpoint the moment when Brexit enthusiasts stopped claiming that leaving the European Union could be painless.

Now, even zealous Eurosceptics preface their rosy visions of a postEU future with caveats of temporary disruption.

Meanwhile, the Treasury has taken a consistently gloomy view, seeing no model of Brexit superior to the deal Britain enjoys as a member of the Brussels club. Government analysis published on Wednesday anticipates slower economic growth under every Brexit scenario.

Philip Hammond can only defend the prime minister’s approach as damage limitation, with compensating political benefits unrelated to economics. The chancellor’s comments highlight the only feasible recommendation for May’s plan: it honours the referendum result. Especially vital from Downing St.’s perspective, the deal includes drastic immigration controls, which the prime minister sees as the most urgent demand of leavers.

Treasury modelling makes it clear that immigration has been good for the economy and so choking off labour mobility has a cost.

Leaving the EU is a painful procedure to which the only real upside is satisfaction of the powerful political demand that it be done.

Whether meeting that test is reason enough to inflict the cost of leaving the EU is the real dilemma many MPs are weighing up but dare not express aloud.