Harper and Machado remain on deck
Winter meetings may lead to a team signing one of the big free agents
It takes a certain resolve to trade away the best position player in your franchise’s history, coming off a season in which you contended until mid-September, but that’s what the Arizona Diamondbacks did Wednesday in sending first baseman Paul Goldschmidt to the St. Louis Cardinals for prospects and draft picks.
It takes a certain boldness to guarantee six years and $140 million (U.S.) to a pitcher with one transcendent season on his resumé, but that’s what the Washington Nationals did in signing lefty Patrick Corbin.
And it takes a certain suspension of disbelief for a team coming off a fourth-place finish to deal away the prospect it drafted with the sixth overall pick just six months earlier — while committing $63 million to an aging second baseman coming off a drug suspension — but that’s what the New York Mets did in packaging outfield prospect Jarred Kelenic in the deal to land Robinson Cano and closer Edwin Diaz from Seattle.
These are the days of bold moves and uncommon resolve in baseball, with teams increasingly divided into those in the midst of extreme rebuilds and those committed to winning now at all costs — a pivot from the days not too long ago when the vast majority of teams sat somewhere in the middle, often too attached to their own prospects and too paralyzed by fear of making a massive misstep.
“This organization (will) be relentless and fearless in our pursuit of greatness,” said Mets general manager Brodie Van Wagenen, the former agent who gave up three prospects for Cano and Diaz.
But as baseball’s winter meetings approach, Monday through Thursday at the Mandalay Bay Resort and Casino in Las Vegas, two of the biggest, boldest moves — the strongest tests of organizational resolve — remain out there to be made. Despite a flurry of activity in the past few days and weeks, the industry is still awaiting answers to the big questions of this off-season:
Who will sign free agent sluggers Bryce Harper and Manny Machado? And will either or both of them shatter the record — held by Giancarlo Stanton, at $325 million over 13 years — for the biggest contract in baseball history? Harper, it is worth recalling, has already turned down a 10-year, $300-million offer from the Nationals.
While there are no indications either player’s situation is headed to a speedy resolution, the heightened media atmosphere and face-to-face nature of the winter meetings has a way of creating sudden, splashy deals, or at least rampant rumours.
That could be particularly true of Harper, the 26-year-old outfielder who spent his first seven seasons with the Washington Nationals. Las Vegas, as surely everyone knows by now, happens to be Harper’s hometown, and his agent, Scott Boras, has set up meetings this week with interested clubs at an undisclosed off-site location.
The sheer number and magnitude of the moves already made in November and the first week of December has left the impression most of the teams have already done their heavy lifting for the winter.
Meantime, the Mariners, despite contending for a wild card well into August, have gone full rebuild mode, having already traded Segura, Cano, Diaz, Canadian-born ace James Paxton (to the Yankees), catcher Mike Zunino (to Tampa Bay) and three relievers.
“This is what a reset looks like,” Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto told reporters.
But in reality, an unusual flurry of early winter trade activity has disguised an alarming lack of movement on the free-agent front — and has likely contributed to it.Only three of the top 40 free agents, as ranked by MLBTradeRumors.com, had been signed: Corbin, Nathan Eovaldi (back to the Red Sox) and Josh Donaldson (to Atlanta). And Donaldson, a former MVP coming off two injuryplagued seasons, settled for a one-year deal.
There is little question the thriving trade market has damaged the free-agent market and will continue to provide an attractive alternative for teams looking for high-end talent. That is especially true of starting pitching, with Madison Bumgarner (Giants), Corey Kluber (Cleveland) and Zack Greinke (Diamondbacks) known to be available.
When they eventually sign, Harper and Machado will undoubtedly push the total expenditures for this year’s class into the stratosphere, but for the bulk of this winter’s free agents — the glut of solid, serviceable, 30-ish players looking for new homes — the grim reality is likely to be the same as was for last winter’s class, as teams increasingly turn away from older, established talent.
At the top end, the perception persists that the Phillies are driving the market, a notion they are not even trying to hide, with owner John Middleton last month telling USA Today he is ready to spend, and may “be a little stupid” in doing so. They appear poised to sign either Harper or Machado — their preference, though, is a closely guarded secret — with some still speculating they could make a play for both. Machado — who can play shortstop until Didi Gregorius returns from surgery, then slide to third base — would seem to be a good fit for the Yankees. But they are now sounding adamant about staying under the luxury-tax threshold in 2019, when the figure goes up from $197 million to $206 million.
Given the Yankees’ professed need for another starting pitcher — lefty J.A. Happ is a logical target — it’s unclear whether they can also add Machado, or if they even want to. It was telling when Hal Steinbrenner, the Yankees’ general managing partner, acknowledged last month that he found “troubling” Machado’s comments during the playoffs that he’s “not the type of player who’s going to be Johnny Hustle and run down the line.”
“It’s a decision (ownership) ultimately will make when they’re forced to make it,” GM Brian Cashman told reporters this week of the decision to push the payroll past the threshold. “It’s my job to collect as much talent as I possibly can in a very cost-effective manner, and hopefully I can do that and not have to (pay) luxury taxes.”
If the Yankees are truly out — and let’s be honest: who really believes that? — the rest of the landscape for Harper and Machado is less defined. The Chicago Cubs seem disinclined to spend at that level, and the Dodgers, at least under Andrew Friedman, never have. The Giants have yet to signal a strategy under new GM Farhan Zaidi.
Somewhere out there, however, is a team, or teams, ready to make the next bold move in a winter already full of them.
“It’s my job to collect as much talent as I possibly can in a very cost-effective manner, and hopefully I can do that and not have to (pay) luxury taxes.” BRIAN CASHMAN YANKEES GM