Cheers and jeers for 2018
Two unprecedented elections in Ontario and Toronto made for a memorable political year. There were also major federal and international events. Our Politics Page columnists have singled out politicians deserving of praise for their abilities to succeed in these turbulent times and others who did not.
The Politics Page will take a break for the holidays, returning on Jan. 13.
Who was 2018’s most underrated politician? Collenette: Amanda Simard, MPP for Glengarry-Prescott-Russell. Prior to her first election as a Progressive Conservative MPP this year, Simard, 29, had experienced four years as a municipal councillor in Russell, Ont.
However, nothing could have prepared her for the premier’s decision to cut the independent office of the French languages commissioner and to halt a proposed French language university.
Simard, bilingual and representing an eastern Ontario riding with a strong francophone heritage and community, responded brilliantly to the affront to her principles and to her constituents.
Resigning from the Conservatives to sit as an independent means she has foregone a career on government benches. Instead, she has become the new telegenic force and face of the many French speaking Ontarians and Francophones across the country, catapulting her into national headlines. She will never be underestimated again. Sears: “Stay out of trouble!” is the subtext of a minister’s mandate letter. Simply reading the one for Patty Hadju, Employment, Workforce Development and Labour minister, makes one’s shoulders sag. Much of the federal government’s social justice agenda lies wholly on hers: from employment equity, to closing skills gaps and therefore compensation … oh, and labour relations, job creation and training. An impossible agenda.
An experienced minister would have had a tough time cherry-picking from that list. For her though, sexual violence is key, having run a shelter in Thunder Bay. She describes with passion and conviction the horrors of that reality.
“Better skills acquisition, leading to better middleclass jobs is in this government’s sweet spot.” Her approach to it appears wise: develop broad networks and low profile wins, not splashy announcements. Watt: She has been mocked for her dancing, undermined by her cabinet, and buffeted between constituents in middle England and continental critics who would love to see her fall.
And yet, remarkably, Theresa May is still standing, after a Dec. 12 caucus confidence vote. Every day, May demonstrates her tenaciousness as critics hound her.
She is Britain’s second female prime minister, and though she lacks Margaret Thatcher’s force of personality, she’s made it clear that she shares the same iron will and determination to see the job through.
The common knock against her is that she only got the job because her peers in cabinet didn’t want it or were too politically toxic. But remember, she skilfully survived as the longest-serving home secretary in 60 years, a telling indication of her talent for political manoeuvring.
Who was the most overrated politician? Collenette: Jagmeet Singh, leader of the federal NDP. 2018 has not been kind to Singh. The leap to federal politics from Queen’s Park seems to have overwhelmed him, in both policy and process.
Initially deciding not to seek election to the House of Commons, the 39-year-old former Ontario MPP is now immersed in a B.C. byelection, expected in early 2019.
Several policy disconnects with his House of Commons caucus have caused confusion within the ranks. To date, eight NDP MPs are not seeking re-election. Recent by-elections in both Quebec and Ontario show plummeting NDP support.
After making history as the first visible minority leader of a federal party, expectations were high. Instead, hopes have dimmed along with the polls. He is on borrowed time. Watt: When he was elected NDP leader, Jagmeet Singh garnered comparisons to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. Both are cosmopolitan progressives with a natural grasp of social media. While Trudeau parlayed his popularity into power, Singh has presided over a precipitous decline in his party’s fortunes: fundraising is so far down that Singh is struggling to pay for a campaign office in his riding-to-be in Burnaby. Mutinous sentiments are spreading through the party’s senior ranks, and internal problems have been poorly handled.
What was the best political play of 2018? Collenette: The Team Canada approach to NAFTA. The Liberal government wisely placed jobs and the economy above partisanship as they embraced a collaborative approach to U.S. trade negotiations. Both business and labour joined forces with current and former politicians to assemble a first-class diplomatic/lobbying effort to convince the American administration of Canada’s steadfast value as a trading partner. Whether it was Brian Mulroney or Justin Trudeau who presented some of the arguments, it did not matter.
With the first step completed under the inspired leadership of Chrystia Freeland, the ratification phase soon begins. Can the Liberal government continue to maintain a united and cohesive approach with the opposition in a fractious election year? Let’s hope so. Sears: In light of their seamless management of the NAFTA file, the federal Liberals’ performance on pipelines, carbon tax and winning the climate change battle is peculiar. Winning the “best play” of the year with strong central discipline, careful messaging and the adroitly assembled support networks they displayed on the one hand, and “worst play” on the other, on a potentially fatal file, is quite baffling.
If the Liberals lose the next election, they can blame their failure to launch on the “economy/energy/climate change” transformation. They achieved a different political trifecta: angering greenies, climate change deniers and the business community. Watt: It was only a year ago that Doug Ford was gearing up for a campaign against Mayor John Tory. Patrick Brown’s sudden political collapse gave Ford exactly the opening he needed and, in quick order, he won the leadership and then the premiership.
Wasting no time, Ford has remade the party in his image. And having executed the smartest political play this year, Ford has capitalized on his success, acting decisively on a number of issues.
Though the press gallery has already set to work exposing a series of would-be scandals, Ford has, since his days as a city councillor, demonstrated an ability to muscle through controversy and remain focused on executing his agenda.
Worst political play of 2018? Collenette: Premier Doug Ford’s threat to invoke the notwithstanding clause. Surprising everyone, one of Ford’s first acts as premier was to downsize the Toronto city council. When a Superior Court justice initially struck down his legislation, Ford took a swipe at “appointed” judges, clearly not fully understanding that elected officials do not act in supreme isolation from the other branches of government.
He next threatened to invoke the notwithstanding clause of the Charter of Rights and Freedoms, the equivalent of a legal atomic bomb. His unwarranted hysteria was all for naught. His justice officials appealed the ruling, which was then stayed at the Court of Appeal. Watt: Perhaps the most perilous issue facing the country this past year has been the renegotiation of NAFTA. That we were able to arrive, relatively intact, with the deal, known as CUSMA, is a small miracle, especially given the self-professed “Tariff Man” in the White House.
Part of the necessary compromise involved granting American dairy tarifffree access to 3.6 per cent of the Canadian market.
Andrew Scheer’s response? To slam the government for having “backed down” and failed to protect Canadian dairy farmers.
Would Scheer really have risked the integrity of the entire economy to help them out? Maxime Bernier’s breakaway party is seeking to capitalize on Scheer’s refusal to entertain an end to supply management, drawing libertarians and free-marketeers away from the big blue tent.
Former Prime Minister Brian Mulroney, who negotiated the original NAFTA, put it best: “There is no Conservative or Liberal way to negotiate a free-trade agreement. There is only a Canadian way.” Scheer would do well to heed his advice. Sears: “Worst” always goes to the new leader of any opposition party facing a majority government. So absolute is a strong government’s dominance in communications, even a sliver of Scheer shining in a spotlight could be a win — except when its unseen by most, so then you still lose.
Political racehorse handicappers need to recognize good horseflesh on sight. They need to be able to say, “Yes, there’s Royal Jelly there.” Most Canadian political horse handicappers patted a high right haunch — and were near unanimity: “Good runner, granted, so long as you don’t covet the winner’s circle, guv!” In his list of races so far, Scheer has done little to change those assessments.
What does Scheer have at each elbow? Angry Tory premiers from every important province in Canada, save two. Scheer might want to book a long evening of reflection with Joe Clark, who will no doubt sing him their praises, at the memory of fighting a tough national election with a dozen ambitious premiers and other contenders for his job, behind him … way behind.
Who is most likely to shine in 2019? Collenette: Elizabeth May, federal leader of the Green Party. Could 2019 finally be a breakthrough year for the indefatigable May, 64, and her Green Party? Nationally, there are hopeful signs.
In B.C., the Green Party holds the balance of power with three seats in a minority NDP government. Ontario elected its first Green MPP this year. P.E.I. elected its first Green MLA in 2015 and, according to recent polls, the Greens are tied with or leading the provincial Liberals. In New Brunswick, support for the Green party currently stands at 17 per cent.
Perhaps May will get an unexpected wedding gift, as she recently announced her upcoming marriage to political activist John Kidder. Her wedding date? Earth Day, April 22! Watt: Watch out for Caroline Mulroney. Despite running against Ford in the leadership race, the Ontario attorney general has been a loyal member of his cabinet. Her colleagues describe her as hardworking and compassionate. When the time has come to step up to the plate, she has obliged: after a kerfuffle over changes to bilingualism policies threatened to drive a wedge between the provincial and federal Conservatives, Mulroney became the minister responsible for Francophone affairs and promptly quieted the waters. Look for her to prove her mettle time and again in 2019.